April partial indicators confirm that Q2 GDP is set for a massive fall and the unemployment rate is already at a record high.
While activity likely bottomed in April as most US states are gradually ‘re-opening’ their economies, the recovery is likely to take a long period of time, with risks weighted to the downside.
The August employment data showed the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2%, as widely expected, but payrolls growth has slowed and a trend rise in the unemployment rate is still intact.