Overview:

• The US economy continued to perform strongly in early Q3 2018 – growth is above trend and the unemployment rate is low and falling.
• With core inflation also returning to target, the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy at a gradual (quarterly) pace with the next rate hike likely at its September meeting.
• Trade risks are still a major concern – particularly an escalation in US/China trade barriers and while progress has been made on NAFTA it could still fall over.

 For further details please see the attached document:

• US Economic Update: September 2018 (PDF, 117kb)