US Update: Inflation Watch – June 2017
Inflation has slowed recently even allowing for ‘one-offs’.
Overview:
- Inflation has slowed recently even allowing for ‘one-offs’.
- However, producer price inflation and wages growth do not show similar weakness, and the currency drag is fading.
- History warns against simply extrapolating recent inflation numbers into the future.
- However, we have made a downward adjustment to our inflation forecasts, which suggests there is downside risk to our current view of one more Fed rate hike at the end of 2017 and three more in 2018.
For further details please see the attached document
About the Author
Tony joined NAB early in 2011 from the Victorian Treasury where he worked for 12 years on a range of issues, including state budget strategy and forecasting state taxation revenues.
Before this, Tony was in the Commonwealth Treasury for a decade, where he undertook work on macroeconomic forecasting, microeconomic reform and debt management.
Tony grew up in Canberra and graduated (with first class honours) from the Australian National University. He also holds a Masters degree in Applied Finance from Macquarie University.
