In Focus: Pulses – July 2016

In this report we present a strong outlook for Australian pulses production, reflecting the exceedingly favourable season so far and greater plantings for some varieties.

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  • In this report we present a strong outlook for Australian pulses production, reflecting the exceedingly favourable season so far and greater plantings for some varieties. Our forecasts point to 2016-17 harvests being substantially higher than the patchy 2015-16 season. We see production for chick peas up 33.0%, lupins up 18.6%, lentils up 69.9%, field peas up 52.8% and faba beans up 86.1%.
  • We are, however, substantially more circumspect when it comes to the outlook for prices. This is particularly the case for pulses predominantly destined for India, such as chick peas and lentils. Prices for both exceeded AUD1,200/tonne this year following two poor Indian monsoon seasons. However, we are already seeing the return of more favourable conditions to India this season, and should the monsoon continue to perform, it is likely that Indian pulse production will be well up on last season. This will likely diminish demand for Australian chick peas, lentils and field peas and prices will respond accordingly. Further, we expect Canadian lentil production to be strong on enthusiastic planting. We see chick pea and lentil prices below AUD700/tonne by the September quarter 2017. While this represents a significant decline from the peaks earlier this year, prices are likely to remain well above wheat and other major grains.
  • For pulses less dependent on the Indian market, such as faba beans and lupins, the price gains have been smaller. However, we expect prices for these to remain reasonably stable over the coming year.

For more details, please refer to the attached document: