EMPLOYMENT

INSIGHTS, TRENDS AND CASE STUDIES

Jobs growth, business surveys and consumer sentiment all point to an economy in good shape.

Business survey suggests solid near-term activity, despite easing from multi-year high.

What can the history of Australian monetary policy tell us about the current monetary policy debate?

Growth will remain solid across the large south-eastern states, while there are signs of stabilisation in mining states as the end of the downswing in resource-related investment approaches.

Recession fears overblown as GDP rebounds; income surges despite weak labour income.

Thinking about some of the challenges facing Australian policy makers – and arguably consumers – at the present time, the slow growth in wages looms large.

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

One feature of Australia’s recent employment growth has been the subdued pace of full-time job creation at a time when part-time employment has grown strongly

My colleague Rodrigo Catril warned yesterday of the possibility of a US Fed March rate hike – what he termed the Ides of March. That argument gained further currency overnight with the US CPI and core‑Retail Sales printing double the market consensus.

NAB Economics changes cash rate view to one 25bp cut in late 2017.

Stronger near-term momentum will keep RBA on hold, but 2018 still a worry.

The strength witnessed in last month’s NAB Monthly Business Survey continued into January, with both business conditions and confidence jumping to much higher levels.

The Australian budget in the first six months of this financial year is tracking a little higher, but not significantly worse than recent budget forecasts

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