23 July 2020 Alan Oster Podcast – Coronavirus and the economy
A large deterioration in the budget position and a pessimistic economic outlook. Listen now.
In today’s podcast, NAB Group Chief Economist Alan Oster discusses the following:
- The government has released an updated set of budget estimates and economic forecasts for 2019/20 and 2020/21, showing the massive impact from the pandemic. The massive fiscal stimulus announced to date and fall in tax receipts on the back of very weak economic conditions means that Treasury now expects a budget deficit of $185b (10% of GDP) in FY21. On the economic outlook, Treasury’s forecasts are a little weaker than our view with growth of -0.3% in FY20 (NAB: +0.3%) and -2.5% in FY21 (NAB: -0.7%). Consequently, the government forecasts unemployment of 9% by year’s end, while we expect a peak of just over 8%.
- Also today is our latest fortnightly consumption spending showing the impact of the lockdown in Melbourne, which is substantial.
- Our quarterly business survey was also released today, and while less timely, shows a major impact on business of expectations for the coming year.
Listen to the full podcast now. If listening on a mobile device, click listen in browser.