Below trend growth to continue
Housing values are still rising at the national level, however, with a rise of just 0.6% over the month, April’s growth rate was the lowest reading since October 2020.
Sydney and Melbourne were the main drag on the headline growth rates. Sydney housing values recorded the third consecutive month-on-month decline, down 0.2%, while Melbourne home values were virtually flat with a decline of just 0.04%. Technically values are down over three of the past five months in Melbourne. Hobart also recorded a negative monthly change, down 0.3%, which was the city’s first monthly fall in 22 months.
The weakening state of the market has taken the rolling quarterly trend into negative territory across Sydney and Melbourne for the first time since these cities were in the midst of the first extended lockdowns of 2020.
Demonstrating the diversity in housing conditions across the broad regions of Australia, half of the capitals are still recording a monthly growth rate above 1%. Adelaide, at 1.9%, led the monthly pace of capital gains, followed by Brisbane, Canberra, and Perth.
Although monthly growth rates remain high in these markets, the trend rate of growth is easing in these areas as well. Perth and Darwin are the exceptions, where the rolling quarterly trend has gathered some steam since late last year. A rebound in migration rates as state and international borders re-opened could partially explain the renewed exuberance, along with persistently low advertised stock levels and strong economic conditions, especially in WA.
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