Author

Taylor Nugent

Recently Published Articles

Markets Today – Sweet Spot

Markets Today – Sweet Spot

30 November 2023

Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.

Markets Today – Sweet Spot
Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully

22 November 2023

The FOMC Minutes out 6am Sydney time didn’t do much to excite markets. The euro is a little weaker over the past 24 hours, while the equity market rally has lost some steam.

Markets Today – Proceed Carefully
Markets Today – Slow

Markets Today – Slow

15 November 2023

US CPI came in a tenth below consensus on both the headline and core rates, leaving yields sharply lower, the USD weaker, and equities higher.

Markets Today – Slow
Markets Today – On Hold

Markets Today – On Hold

2 November 2023

The FOMC was on hold as expected. Yields are lower, though most of the moves came ahead of the Fed with soft US data.

Markets Today – On Hold
Markets Today – Carefully

Markets Today – Carefully

20 October 2023

Fed Chair Powell’s remarks have seen a choppy market response and a steeper curve, but against a backdrop of weak risk sentiment

Markets Today – Carefully
Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

17 October 2023

Todays podcast Positive risk appetite to kick off the new week Equities higher, S&P500 +1.1% Yields higher, US 10yr +9bp to 4.70% Dollar loses 0.4% on the DXY with AUD an outperformer, +0.8% to 0.6344 Coming up: NZ CPI, RBA Minutes, US Retail, CA CPI, UK Wages, FED & ECB speakers Events round-up NZ: Performance […]

Markets Today – Winter is Hopeful

Podcast

Markets Today – Work It

Markets Today – Work It

9 October 2023

Stronger than expected payrolls data initially saw yields sharply higher, equities lower, and the USD stronger, though with the unemployment rate steady and earnings growth moderating, those moves were retraced.

Markets Today – Work It
Markets Today – Breathe

Markets Today – Breathe

5 October 2023

The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause. Why? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there are a number of factors, but it’s tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls that will really set the direction for early next week.

Markets Today – Breathe
Markets Today – One More Day

Markets Today – One More Day

20 September 2023

Bond markets are a little feisty ahead of the FOMC meeting tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says a hold is still expected tomorrow but there are more signs that inflation isn’t beaten yet.

Markets Today – One More Day
Markets Today – As high as it gets?

Markets Today – As high as it gets?

15 September 2023

Todays podcast   ECB opts to hike, but taken as dovish with guidance read as a peak in rates Euro -0.8% and European yields are lower US Retail Sales data stronger in August, though offset by revisions AU Employment bounced in August Coming up: China Activity & MLF rate, NZ Manufacturing PMI, US UMich confidence […]

Markets Today – As high as it gets?
Markets Today – Slow Ride

Markets Today – Slow Ride

8 September 2023

Yields are generally lower globally after a boost to US 2-year yields from lower jobless claims proved short-lived while equities declined.

Markets Today – Slow Ride
Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers

Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers

30 August 2023

Softer US consumer confidence and a JOLTs report suggesting ongoing rebalancing in the labour market saw the US dollar and US yields lower, while equities were higher.

Markets Today – Cooling of the Embers
Markets Today – Falling

Markets Today – Falling

24 August 2023

Yields were generally lower globally as PMI data came in softer than expectations, with deterioration most pronounced in German Services. The AUD was stronger, as were US equities, with tech leading once again ahead of much anticipated earnings from Nvidia.

Markets Today – Falling
Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried

17 August 2023

Todays podcast FOMC Minutes show concern about upside risks to inflation US yields higher led by 5bp rise in 10yr Equities were lower, S&P500 -0.8% with declines late in the session Asia equities weighed by China concerns AUD -0.5% against a broadly stronger dollar at 0.6421 Coming up: AU Employment, NZ PPI, JN Machinery Orders, […]

Markets Today – Still Watching, Still Worried
Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

9 August 2023

Risk appetite has been weighed over the past 24 hours by a trio of soft China data, a surprise ‘windfall’ tax on bank profits in Italy, and a downgrade of a number of small and mid-sized banks by Moody’s.

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time

5 July 2023

The RBA met yesterday and held rates steady. Other than that, it was a very quiet 24 hours characterised by thin trading alongside the US 4 July holiday.

Markets Today – Maybe Next Time
Markets Today – No relief

Markets Today – No relief

22 June 2023

Powell added little new information in House testimony, but the US dollar was weaker and equities were lower. UK CPI data surprised higher ahead of the BoE later today

Markets Today – No relief
AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus

AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus

15 June 2023

In today’s Weekly, we delve into Australia’s productivity and labour cost data given the RBA’s recent focus on these metrics, and explain why timely signals on the inflation outlook may be better found elsewhere.

AMW – Making sense of the RBA’s productivity focus
Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?

14 June 2023

US CPI was in line with expectations, adding to confidence the FOMC will skip at tomorrow’s meeting even as yields pushed higher. Strong UK labour market saw UK yields surge.

Markets Today – Soft enough to skip?
AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop

AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop

7 June 2023

In our latest Weekly, Taylor Nugent explores the impact of pandemic swings in population and housing demand to explain the current acute rental market tightness and rapidly increasing rents, as well as when these pressure may ease

AMW – Why rents are going up and when they will stop
Markets Today – Consequences

Markets Today – Consequences

7 June 2023

It has been a quiet 24 hours in markets with generally small market movements, while the Australian dollar held onto its gains following yesterday RBA rate hike, 0.8% higher against the US dollar.

Markets Today – Consequences
Markets Today – Now That I Found You

Markets Today – Now That I Found You

29 May 2023

US equities were higher on Friday as hopes grew of a debt ceiling deal, ahead of news on the weekend that an agreement in principle had indeed been found. US data was strong and Fed tightening expectations firmed.

Markets Today – Now That I Found You
Markets Today – Tug of War

Markets Today – Tug of War

24 May 2023

The absence of a debt ceiling deal weighs on risk sentiment even as Biden calls talks ‘productive,’ while global PMIs reaffirm the stark divergence between services and goods.

Markets Today – Tug of War
Markets Today – Resolution

Markets Today – Resolution

2 May 2023

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger with little fallout from the failure of First Republic, being acquired by JP Morgan in an FDIC-supported deal.

Markets Today – Resolution
Markets Today – Relative Calm

Markets Today – Relative Calm

29 March 2023

There has been little top-level news flow over the past 24 hours, which has seen markets relatively calm by the standards of recent weeks.

Markets Today – Relative Calm
Markets Today – So Yesterday

Markets Today – So Yesterday

21 March 2023

It was another fairly volatile day following the weekend deal for UBS to buy Credit Suisse, though overall the deal seems to have found some cautious acceptance.

Markets Today – So Yesterday
Markets Today: I won’t back down 

Markets Today: I won’t back down 

1 March 2023

Upside surprises to European inflation out of Spain and France have seen ECB pricing and European yields push higher, with some bleed through into the US. Elsewhere, US equities are little changed, shrugging off soft consumer confidence data, but are and on track for a monthly decline of more than 2%.

Markets Today: I won’t back down 
Markets Today: Wages Day

Markets Today: Wages Day

23 February 2023

In Australia yesterday, WPI wages data showed less wages pressure than feared. WPI grew 0.8% q/q and 3.3% y/y, 0.2ppts below the market consensus and RBA expectations.

Markets Today: Wages Day
AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?

AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?

22 February 2023

Yesterday's Minutes make clear the RBA’s priority is inflation. While the Board is seeking to return inflation to target while keeping the economy on an ‘even keel’ it will do what is necessary to return inflation to target. The wages backdrop is a key risk.

AMW: Could higher wages push the RBA even further?
Markets Today: Tighter than ever

Markets Today: Tighter than ever

18 November 2022

US yields are higher and the dollar stronger in a modest and reversal of some of last week’s post CPI moves as Fed speakers remain stubborn that rates will continue to go higher to get to a level that is sufficiently restrictive.

Markets Today: Tighter than ever
MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?

MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?

17 November 2022

Fed speakers were clear that a pause is not imminent and there is more to do, even as they may move at a slower pace, while stronger US retail sales numbers showed resilience in spending, providing some small counter to the burst of optimism after softer-than-expected US inflation data last week.

MT: Back to betting on the Fed; no pause for RBA?
AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?

AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?

16 November 2022

In this Weekly, we explore recent RBA communications and forecasts and what it means for the path forward. It is clear there is a very high bar to step back up to 50bp hikes.

AMW: Is the RBA as dovish as they sound?
Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM

Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM

25 October 2022

The UK has a new PM in Rishi Sunak, and gilts have rallied in response. UK 10yr gilt yields were 31bp lower at 3.75%. That’s 90bp off their peak of 4.64%, but still about 60bp above their level before the Truss Premiership.

Markets Today: US rally, China’s slump, UK’s new PM
Markets Today: Full reversal, for today

Markets Today: Full reversal, for today

20 October 2022

Yields rose to fresh cycle highs and risk appetite soured. US equities were lower, halting a 2-day rally despite relatively upbeat earnings from the likes of Netflix and United Airlines.

Markets Today: Full reversal, for today
AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target

AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target

27 July 2022

The Terms of Reference for the RBA Review have been finalised, the three-member review panel appointed, and March 2023 set as a deadline for a final report containing recommendations to the Government. In this Weekly, we look at what to expect.

AMW: RBA Review, No need to shift inflation target
AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context

AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context

24 August 2021

The NSW and Victorian outbreaks remain stubbornly high in the face of strict lockdown measures, renewing focus on vaccinations as the path forward. The vaccination rollout is finding its gear, led by a sharp acceleration in NSW, putting the rollout on track to meet reopening thresholds by November.

AMW: Australia’s path to reopening in international context
AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again

AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again

9 August 2021

Strong US Payrolls print, cementing expectations of a taper announcement at an upcoming FOMC meeting (September, November or December). As tapering becomes more certain, market focus will quickly change to the likely rate hike profile. Recent speeches by Fed Vice-Chair Clarida and Governor Brainard hint how this will evolve.

AMW: RBA’s SoMP sees markets bring forward RBA pricing again
AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic

27 July 2021

The Sydney lockdown is in its fifth week and looks set to be extended well beyond July 30. Given the high transmission rates of the delta variant, snap lockdowns are likely to remain a ‘tool of first resort’ in controlling the virus until vaccination rates lift.

AMW: Vaccinations and the path out of the pandemic
AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation

AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation

6 July 2021

Q2 CPI is just under four weeks away (on Wednesday July 28). In this week’s Weekly we have a first look at what CPI may print and highlight why we believe Core CPI is likely to remain subdued despite the pick-up seen in core inflation in the US, NZ and Canada.

AMW: What to look out for in Australian inflation