In this Weekly, we look at some of the key risks around the Australian inflation outlook in the context of measured inflation turning higher globally.
We are unlikely to get a true read of the underlying pace of inflation until mid-2022, with both transitory and policy driven impacts continuing to play out.
For Australia, population growth should begin to recover when international borders are re-opened (latest guidance is from mid 2022).
The NSW and Victorian outbreaks remain stubbornly high in the face of strict lockdown measures, renewing focus on vaccinations as the path forward. The vaccination rollout is finding its gear, led by a sharp acceleration in NSW, putting the rollout on track to meet reopening thresholds by November.