AUTHORS

Taylor Nugent

Taylor Nugent

RECENTLY PUBLISHED ARTICLES

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In this Weekly. we discuss how broader financial conditions, and not just the cash rate, are influencing the economic outlook.

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A more positive risk backdrop begins the new week. US equities are higher, the S&P500 up 1.9%, extending a turnaround after dipping into bear market territory intraday on Friday.

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Although employment growth disappointed yesterday, and along with wages data from earlier in the week, remains consistent with a rate rise of 25bp by the RBA in June.

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Risk assets remained out of favour as concerns over inflation and recession risk continued to dominate.

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The ongoing theme of mounting growth concerns against a backdrop of central bank tightening is continuing to drive market movements.

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Inflation is now forecast to peak at over 10% this year in the UK

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The RBA yesterday increased the cash rate target by 25bp to 0.35% and said it will do what is necessary to return inflation to the band

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There’s been a strong risk-off sentiment to the start of the week.

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Wages likely to pick up despite NAIRU uncertainty. The RBA’s latest ‘best guess’ of the NAIRU is 4%.

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Bond yields have fallen sharply overnight, but that doesn’t mean inflation expectations are going away, or does it?

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US inflation rose as expected, but there’s still been a reaction in the bond markets.

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The reaction to the Fed minutes early yesterday morning continued to dominate markets overnight.

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RBA’s April meeting yesterday left policy on hold at 0.1% but underwent a substantial rewrite to the post meeting statement.

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