Below trend growth to continue
Reopening in NSW, soon to be followed by the ACT and Victoria, should give retail spending a good kick along in October and November.
Retail conditions in lockdown-affected areas have clearly been challenging for many businesses, with hospitality hit particularly hard. However, our data now indicate that lockdown-affected areas are turning a corner. Reopening in NSW, soon to be followed by the ACT and Victoria, should give retail spending a good kick along in October and November.
While this report, alongside our weekly tracking data, provides some encouraging news, the NAB Monthly Business Survey provided a more nuanced picture for businesses in September. While confidence in NSW and Victoria rebounded ahead of reopening, actual business conditions fell significantly during the period. We expect that reopening will bring an uptick, but how quickly conditions recover will depend on consumer sentiment in the face of ongoing cases.
For more information, please see the NAB Cashless Retail Sales Index (September 2021)
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