September 10, 2013

India GDP (June Quarter) – September 2013

The Indian economy (Production, at factor cost) grew by only 4.4% over the year to the June quarter, 2013. This is the slowest pace of growth since March 2009. By Production, services (primarily financial and agriculture) were the mainstay; in contrast, mining and manufacturing contracted

  • The Indian economy (Production, at factor cost) grew by only 4.4% over the year to the June quarter, 2013. This is the slowest pace of growth since March 2009.
  • By Production, services (primarily financial and agriculture) were the mainstay; in contrast, mining and manufacturing contracted.
  • Consumption (primarily Government) and Investment were the main contributors to GDP by Expenditure. Net exports and Gross fixed capital formation deducted from growth.
  • The recent trade numbers for July were encouraging, with a 11.6% expansion in exports and a compression in the trade deficit. Such estimates need to be sustained, and should receive support from the fall in the real exchange rate.
  • The Indian Rupee remains weak and volatile and reflects the general pattern of deteriorating EM currencies among countries with high Current Account Deficits, such as India’s (4.8% of GDP).
  • Recent RBI measures to open a Foreign Exchange Swap facility to assist oil marketing companies have eased pressure in currency markets.
  • The Finance Minister, Panaliappan Chidambaram, has outlined a 10-point agenda to improveIndia’s economic prospects. These are very useful measures, but need to be acted on urgently.
  • Standard & Poor’s negative outlook onIndiais a reminder of the need to proceed with reforms.
  • NAB Economics has a modest outlook on India: 4.4% in 2013, followed by a slightly higher 4.6% in 2013. Business and consumer caution, stressed balance sheets as well as limited support from future Government spending will weigh on growth prospects. The silver lining is the favourable monsoon.

For further analysis download the full report.

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

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The holiday season shopping flurry can offer some small businesses the opportunity to prosper… and others a time to take stock for the new year. Both call for careful preparation – particularly in the current environment. NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic shares her top tips.

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

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