NAB’s Wellbeing Index rebounded solidly in the June quarter, after falling to its lowest point in the history of the survey. Pressures remain. But the effort required has eased.
Report
February 14, 2017
India Monetary Policy: February 2017
The RBI, somewhat surprisingly, maintained the policy repo rate at 6.25%. Uncertainty about the effects of demonetisation and sticky core inflation were factors.
The Central Government’s Budget reflects a prudent fiscal stance, with the fiscal deficit anticipated at 3.2% for 2017-18. NAB Economics is forecasting one more rate cut to 6% (most likely August), the last of the current rate-cutting cycle. Higher crude prices, a weak monsoon projection and uncertainty in the external environment might preclude a further rate cut.
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