Minerals & Energy Outlook: February 2019
In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% this quarter – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.
Overview
- In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 2.7% qoq in Q1 2019 – driven almost entirely by the upturn in iron ore prices.
- That said, the outlook for our index is largely unchanged – with the stronger prices for iron ore (driven by the supply issues in Brazil) essentially offset by a weaker outlook for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG).
- In annual average terms, the USD index is forecast to rise by just 0.5% in 2019, before declining by 3.1% in 2020 – with a softer profile for iron ore and metallurgical coal the main contributors.
- The changes in AUD terms are somewhat larger – reflecting NAB’s forecasts for a stronger Aussie dollar from the second half of 2019 onwards – with the index increasing by 4.2% this year and falling by almost 10% in 2020.
Find out more in the NAB Minerals Energy Outlook – February 2019
About the Author
NAB’s Group Economics consists of a leading team of economists who provide accurate, timely and relevant updates on domestic, international and industrial economic trends.
Headed up by the Group Chief Economist, Alan Oster, the team is comprised of three distinct departments:
- Australian economics and commodities
- International economics
- Industry economics
The team publish a wealth of content including reports, surveys, forecasts and indexes.
