NAB Economics Data Insights, 6 June 2020

The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little.

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The trend improvement in consumption-based spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it may be levelling off and even slowing a little. The rate of growth in payment inflows (which we are now monitoring in 4-week moving average terms) also continues to slow but is still mildly positive.

  • The overall trend in consumption spending remains positive, but NAB’s latest data read suggests it is levelling off and slowing. Spending over the week ending June 6 was just 0.2% higher in 4-week moving average terms (1.6% in the previous week). Spending is however now down just 4.1% over the same time last year and 2.8% since the start of the year (-7.1% and -4.5% respectively in the week to May 23).
  •   A flattening trend is also apparent in most states, except the NT and VIC where spending continued to lift in the past week. Spending growth is however still higher than at the start of 2020 in all states bar ACT.
  •    By industry, spending on Admin & Support Services is still some 82% lower over the year to date. But we are seeing more encouraging signs in Hospitality, albeit growth is still very weak. Construction is the clear out- (up 33.3% since the start of the year, and 12.5% since the same time last year). Retail spend is also around 12% higher since the start of 2020 and over the same time last year.
  • Consumer spending growth over the year was positive in just 16 of 45 industry sub-sectors – led Gambling (62.7%) and Internet Publishing & Broadcasting (41.6%). Spending fell most for Motion Picture & Sound Recording (-96.6%), Admin Services (-85.3%), Rail (-82.7%) and Air & Space (-81.9%) Transport.
  •    Our new 4-week moving average measure shows payment inflows into NAB merchants were up 3.7% in the week ending in June 6, but has slowed quite rapidly in recent weeks. Inflows into Corporates have continued to slow, with inflows falling across all other businesses. By industry, Hospitality is still clearly struggling the most (down 39.6%), but the pace of decline continues easing. Other services (34.3%) were strongest, with solid growth also seen in Mining (20.2%), Construction (17.1%), Wholesale Trade (16.9%) and Manufacturing (15.5%).

For further details, please see NAB Data Insights 6 June 2020 Report.

During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.