NAB Economics Data Insights, 28 May 2020
The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020.
The trend improvement in consumption-based spending looks to have continued across most industries, although heavy falls are still being seen in key sectors such as Hospitality, Transport, Postal & Warehousing and Healthcare. Business payment inflows fell in most industries during May, with the heaviest falls in Hospitality and Arts & Recreation Services. Inflows in Manufacturing are however still quite strong.
- The overall trend in consumption spending continues to improve, but in 4-week moving average terms is down 7.8% over the same time last year and 5.8% since the start of 2020. The rate of spending decline eased further in all states and territories, and is now falling at single-digit levels in all areas bar the ACT.
- By industry, spending is still falling very heavily in Administration & Support Services (down 85.9% since the start of the year). It is also very weak in Accommodation & Food Services (-49.3%) and Transport, Postal & Warehousing (-47.6%), although the pace of decline has slowed. In contrast, spending is up 29% in Professional, Scientific & Technical Services and Construction since the start of the year, but up only 1.0% and 7.4% respectively from the same time last year. Retail spend is 10% higher since the start of 2020 and from the same time last year.
- Spending growth over the year is positive in 20 of 47 sub-industries – led by Gambling (71.5%), Internet Publishing & Broadcasting (44.2%) and Waste Collection (35.2%). Motion Picture & Sound Recording (-95.3%), Administration Services (-88.8%), Heritage Activities (-84.6%) and Rail (-83.8%) are down most.
- Business payment inflows into NAB merchants fell 8.1% in May, after growing in the first 4 months of the year (based on data for the first 24 days of the month). Inflows into Corporates remain positive but have slowed sharply over the year. Inflows into medium and emerging firms are down heavily. By industry, the decline in inflows in Hospitality has slowed but is still down by around half over the same time last year (-47.5%). Inflows were strongest in Manufacturing (15.8%), underpinned by Pulp & Paper Manufacturing.
We recorded a podcast to accompany today’s Data Insights release, giving you a 10 minute summary of our key findings. Listen to the full podcast now.
During these extraordinary times we have taken the decision to publish aggregated customer data categorised by industry segment with the view to helping provide clarity around which segments of the economy have been most affected by the broader macroeconomic trends at play. NAB takes data privacy very seriously. All customer transaction data has been aggregated and no individual’s data is specifically identified or analysed as part of this process. The data used in this report will not be sold or made publicly available, but insights from the data will be shared with the Australian people.