Growth, inflation and labour market all easing
The latest NAB Online Retail Sales Index shows sales experienced relatively strong month-on-month growth of 1.1% in September, seasonally adjusted. This is a considerable improvement on the sales weakness evidence in July (-1.4%).
The latest NAB Online Retail Sales Index shows sales experienced relatively strong month-on-month growth of 1.1% in September, seasonally adjusted. This is a considerable improvement on the sales weakness evidence in July (-1.4%). The September growth has been generated by domestic online retail sales, which accelerated (+1.8%), while international contracted (-1.1%). In year-on-year terms, domestic online retail (7.3%)
continues to outpace international (1.3%).
Comparable YOY growth in traditional bricks and mortar retail (up 4.1% in September) was still outpaced by the improvement in online retail (5.7%). That said, recent online growth has been more subdued than the 20-30% year-on-year growth rates recorded in earlier years. In September the seasonally adjusted MOM change was 1.1%. The trend estimate of 0.3% suggests online retail sales continue to slow.
By category, the results are mixed. Growth rose significantly in electronic games and toys, although this segment accounts for a small share of overall online spend. Daily deals, a sector that has been contracting in year-on-year (-6.9%) terms, saw the second highest month-on-month growth in September (4.8%).
Overall there are not currently large differences in the growth rate of online spend by age group. Online spend across all age categories increased. While those aged 35-44 had marginally weaker online growth in September, this age group still contributed most to annual growth as they represent the largest share of spend.
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Based on two million non-cash transactions per day, scaled up to replicate the broad economy, the NAB Online Retail Sales Index tracks online retail spending across sectors, demographics, locations and the breakdown of goods bought from domestic and international online retailers. The index is produced monthly and analysis is provided on a quarterly basis.
Quantium is Australia’s leading data analytics and marketing strategy firm. Quantium has worked with NAB for more than six years, assessing de-identified transaction data to derive insights, trends and shopping habits of different customer groups. The resulting analysis forms Market Blueprint and is used by NAB and other businesses to drive innovation and business performance through customer, distribution and
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