• On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, the index returned to growth in June (2.8%), following a slightly revised contraction in May (-1.5%, was -1.6%).
• Growth accelerated in year-on-year terms (14.0% y/y), with online retail recording continuous growth by this metric since May 2023.
• Growth was recorded for all categories in June, with the exception of takeaway food, which contracted heavily across all states. With large monthly growth swings, volatility has increased over the past year for takeaway food results, impacting its contribution to growth over the past year. The strong headline result was led by the largest sales category, homewares and appliances, with the monthly result from this category boosted by an increase in average spend, beyond volume growth. Department stores continues to lead in year-on-year terms, accelerating in June.
• Growth for all states this month, led by those with smaller spend share. Of the large sales states, the biggest increase was recorded in NSW. Homewares and appliances led growth in all states except WA, which was the only state to record a contraction for the category.
• Mixed results for metro and regional this month, with SA showing a rapid increase in regional areas, along with a more moderate outpacing of metro for NSW. Metro outpaced regional in all other states. In year-on-year terms, while metro growth has been more rapid across states, the two series have generally converged.
• Both Domestic and International retailers recorded growth in the month, with the former performing slightly better.
• NAB estimates that in the 12 months to June, Australians spent $57.81 billion on online retail, a level that is around 13.5% of the total retail trade estimate (May 2024, Series 8501, Australian Bureau of Statistics), with the acceleration in growth (8.3%) beginning to level off.

NAB Chief Economist, Alan Oster commented:

In month on month, seasonally adjusted terms, online retail sales rebounded in June, after contracting in May. Noticeable this month was the exceptional growth for homewares and appliances. The average spend also increased, and beyond the rate of growth in volume of transactions. While the seasonal factors should account for larger baskets of goods purchased in the June EOFY sales period, there may also be an element of price inflation, evidenced by strong year on year growth. Also noteworthy is that this category is typically associated with a high portion of what can be considered discretionary goods. Strength in discretionary spend was also observed in our broader series.

The discretionary nature of takeaway meals has not followed either the broader discretionary trend this month or the growth in the broader series for restaurants and cafes. Online takeaway food recorded one of the largest contractions in the category’s series history. However, this series has also become more volatile in the monthly results, and results have the weakest correlation to other series in the index. So, it is likely that there are other market factors impacting the series that cannot be ascribed to discretionary spend.

Get all the insights in the NAB Online Retail Sales Index (June 2024)