Below trend growth to continue
The latest NAB online retail sales index figures show sales grew in August. In dollar terms, its estimated Australians spent $17.5 billion on online retail in the last year. Growth accelerated for electronic games and toys which leads growth, along with media and fashion.
At 0.6% the latest seasonally adjusted NAB online retail sales index shows sales grew in August, an improvement on the -1.4% recorded in July. At 0.4%, the trend estimate for online retail sales was lower than the previous month (0.5%), suggesting that looking through the month to month volatility, sales are still growing but at a much slower rate than in past periods. We estimate that online sales are now 7% higher compared to a year ago.
ABS data showed growth of comparable traditional retailers (ex. cafes and restaurants) in July to be -0.1% (mom, s.a.) lower than June, and 4.7% higher than a year ago.
In dollar terms, we estimate Australians spent $17.5 billion on online retail in the 12 months to August 2015. This level is equivalent to 7.1% of spending at traditional bricks & mortar retailers as measured by the ABS (excluding cafes, restaurants and takeaway food, to create a like-for-like comparison) in the 12 months to July 2015.
In year on year terms, all categories except daily deals (-16.3% yoy) recorded growth in August. Growth accelerated for electronic games and toys (+27.2% yoy), which still leads growth, along with media (+17.7% yoy), fashion(11.4%), and personal & recreational goods (+7.3%). Growth was stable for department and variety stores (1.9% yoy), while both grocery & liquor and homewares slowed.
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