US Economic Update – 29 October 2021
Growth slows in Q3 but inflation still elevated.
- GDP grew by 0.5% q/q in Q3, a marked slowing on previous quarters. We expect a rebound in growth over coming quarters as some of the headwinds in Q3 fade (supply bottlenecks, COVID-19 and unwinding of fiscal stimulus).
- We are now expecting GDP growth of 5.5% in 2021 (previously 5.7%) and 3.8% in 2022 (previously 3.9%). Inflation pressures are still evident, but we expect inflation to moderate to a bit over 2% by the end of the forecast period.
- We now expect that the Fed will start raising the fed funds rate in Q1 2023 (previously Q2 2023).
Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (29 October 2021)