US Economic Update – 29 October 2021

Growth slows in Q3 but inflation still elevated.

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Key highlights:

  • GDP grew by 0.5% q/q in Q3, a marked slowing on previous quarters. We expect a rebound in growth over coming quarters as some of the headwinds in Q3 fade (supply bottlenecks, COVID-19 and unwinding of fiscal stimulus).
  • We are now expecting GDP growth of 5.5% in 2021 (previously 5.7%) and 3.8% in 2022 (previously 3.9%). Inflation pressures are still evident, but we expect inflation to moderate to a bit over 2% by the end of the forecast period.
  • We now expect that the Fed will start raising the fed funds rate in Q1 2023 (previously Q2 2023).

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (29 October 2021)