April 30, 2019
US Economic Update, April 2019
Q1 GDP – headline growth overstates strength, but still a good result.
- US GDP growth accelerated in Q1 2019 to a strong 3.2% q/q (annualised).
- However, this was due to a boost from net trade and inventories, while domestic final demand actually weakened.
- We still expect growth to slow over 2019 but with Q1 GDP stronger, and financial conditions recovering more quickly, than expected we have revised up our 2019 GDP forecast to 2.5% (from 2.1%).
- We still expect the Fed to remain on hold this year, as the stronger activity data is offset by a weakening in inflation.
For further details please see the US Economic Update: April 2019.