Overview:

• The US economy grew strongly in Q2 2018, driven by a rebound in consumption and further solid business investment growth.
• We continue to expect GDP growth of 2.8% in 2018, and for the economy to slow in 2019 (2.4%, previously 2.3%) and 2020 (1.7%) as this year’s fiscal stimulus wanes, monetary policy tightens and supply constraints kick-in. The yield curve is not (yet) pointing to a recession in the immediate future.
• A more immediate concern is the escalation of the US/China trade dispute, although EU/US trade tensions have settled down.

For further details please see the attached document:

• US Economic Update: August 2018 (PDF, 112kb)