Key highlights:

• Early data for Q4 point to solid domestic demand growth but net exports again loom as a large swing factor for GDP.
• Most business surveys have trended down this year and we still expect the US to go into recession next year.
• Labour market data continue to be strong, with robust wages data in the November employment report likely to concern the Fed and suggests some upside risk to our expected fed funds target range of 4.75% to 5.00%. That said, we still expect the Fed to step down the pace of hikes – to 50bp – at the December meeting.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (December 2022)