Key highlights:

• We still expect to see very strong Q2 GDP growth supporting further labour market improvement, although progress has been held up by labour supply issues.
• Inflation pressures remain elevated; while partly due to supply shortages or to prices in some sectors recovering from depressed levels, there has also been a broader pick-up in inflation.
• We still expect a QE tapering announcement later this year, with tapering to commence in early 2022, but have changed our federal funds rate call – we now forecast quarterly (25bp) rate rises starting in Q2 2023.

 Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – June 2021