Key highlights:

• The economy resumed growth in Q3, although this was in large part due to an unsustainably large net export contribution.
• Growth in domestic final demand was weak in Q3 and October business surveys point to a weakening economy.
• We have made small upwards revisions to our GDP growth forecasts. We now expect growth of 1.9% (was 1.8%) in 2022, 0.1% in 2023 (was 0.0%) and 1.1% in 2024 (unchanged). We still expect the US to go into a mild recession in 2023.
• Following the Fed’s meeting this week, we now expect a higher peak fed funds rate (5.00%, up from 4.50% previously) to be reached in Q1 2023.

Find out more in NAB’s US Update (November 2022)