Overview

• NAB sees a +0.0% q/q (1.0% y/y) GDP print for Q1 2024
• Another quarter of very soft growth, with consumption and business investment broadly flat, dwelling investment slightly lower and volatile outcomes for inventories and trade.
• Confirmation of ongoing weakness in growth is likely to see the RBA remain on hold, despite a still strong CPI read in April.
• We expect soft growth to persist in Q2, before easing pressures on household income support growth in H2 – though just how much remains uncertain and will be key.

For further details please see the Australian GDP Preview (Q1 2024)