Overview

• NAB sees a +0.2% q/q (1.4% y/y) GDP print for Q3 2023 – outside of the pandemic, this would be the lowest annual growth rate since 2000.
• This outcome would be slightly weaker than the RBA had expected in February but will have little immediate policy implications with the focus squarely on the pace of inflation moderation.
• We see ongoing softness in growth in H1 2024, driven by still soft household consumption growth, but we expect growth to pick up in H2 2024 as the pressures on real disposable incomes wane (and support from Stage 3 tax cuts and likely further cost of living relief in the budget) and dwelling construction turns a corner.

For further details please see the Australian GDP Preview (Q4 2023)