Key points:

• NAB expects a Q4 GDP print of 0.5% q/q (1.2% y/y).
• Consumption is expected to be the key support, with the other private sector components expected to be soft.
• We continue to expect GDP growth to strengthen over 2025 making H2 2024 the low point in growth for the cycle.
• This Q4 outcome would be in line with the RBA’s expectation for growth but key for the rates outlook will be how sustained the rebound in consumption growth is, and how quickly growth picks up over 2025.

Read the full report here: GDP Preview (2024 Q4)