Minerals & Energy Outlook: April 2019

In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 1.9% qoq in Q2 2019.

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  • In USD terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 1.9% qoq in Q2 2019, partially reversing gains in Q1. Declining LNG pries drive this decline, partially offset by higher prices for iron ore.
  • Our commodity price outlook remains largely unchanged when compared with last month, with prices set to decline modestly from the peak in Q1 2019.
  • In annual average terms, the USD index is forecast to rise by 1.7% in 2019, before declining by 4.0% in 2020. Two key exports- iron ore and metallurgical coal- explain most of this decline.
  • Reflecting NAB’s currency forecasts, there are larger movements in AUD terms- with the index increasing by 5.5% in 2019 before falling by around 10.8% in 2020.

Find out more in the NAB Minerals & Energy Outlook – April 2019.