Overview

• Preliminary data suggests that NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index eased by around 2.3% qoq in Q1 2024. This was almost entirely driven by the steep downturn in liquefied natural gas (LNG) – where reduced usage and ample supply calmed markets (notwithstanding a modest uptick in March).
• Global economic growth is set to fall below its long-run trend in 2024 and 2025 – reflecting the impact of restrictive monetary policy in advanced economies (with uncertainty around when policy begins to ease) as well as headwinds to China’s economy. This is likely to negatively impact commodity demand.
• Price forecasts for a number of commodities have been revised this month – both up and down – however, the sizeable weight of iron ore and LNG in our commodity index means that we now anticipate a 13.6% fall in USD terms in 2024 (compared with 9.7% previously). The anticipated strengthening in the Australian dollar means a larger decline in average AUD commodity prices – down by 16.0%.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (April 2024)