Overview

• Commodity markets have continue to display differing trends. Gold markets have surged in recent months, rising to record highs, while iron ore, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and base metals were somewhat stronger. In contrast, coal prices have been relatively stable.
• Global PMI surveys continue to point to a recovery in manufacturing conditions, however there remain some significant risks around the global economy – particularly given second wave COVID-19 outbreaks in a range of regions.
• In annual average terms, US dollar denominated commodity prices (as measured by our non-rural commodity price index) are forecast to fall by around 12.0% –this decline is largely driven by falls in LNG and hard coking coal. Prices for iron ore have risen above our quarterly forecasts, suggesting some upside risk to our overall index. In 2021, our index is forecast to increase by 2.5%.

Find out more in Minerals & Energy Outlook – Aug 2020.