NAB’s Wellbeing Index rebounded solidly in the June quarter, after falling to its lowest point in the history of the survey. Pressures remain. But the effort required has eased.
Report
August 5, 2024
Minerals & Energy Outlook: August 2024
NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 7.0% in Q2
Overview
- While most other commodity markets tracked either sideways or drifted slightly lower in July, base metal markets continued their sharp correction – following the speculative inflow that saw prices surge in May. The exception to this trend was gold, that set yet another record high in mid-July.
- In US dollar terms, NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 7.0% qoq in Q2, and we anticipate a further 5.3% qoq decline in Q3. Bulk commodities – iron ore and coal – are the key drivers of this trend.
- At a high level, global economic conditions do not provide much support for commodity demand in the short term – given below trend economic growth forecast through to 2026, along with weak domestic demand in China and growing trade tensions with its major trading partners.
- Our commodity price forecasts are unchanged this month. NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index (denominated in US dollar terms) is forecast to fall by 10.8% in 2024, and a further 14.0% in 2025 – led by coal and iron ore.
Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (August 2024)
