Overview

• NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by 2.8% qoq in Q2 in US dollar terms. Much of the decline in average prices for the quarter reflected steep falls in April (following the initial announcement of US reciprocal tariffs) that subsequently started to reverse from early May.
• Minerals & energy commodity markets continue to search for direction – reflecting the competing pressures of a subdued demand outlook (given underlying economic conditions), supply side concerns (particularly for energy commodities) and front running ahead of tariffs (primarily copper). By historical standards, we see soft global growth during the period from 2025 through to 2027 – which may constrain commodity markets.
• Our commodity price index is forecast to fall by 8.8% in 2025 and a further 8.6% in 2026. Australia’s main resource exports – iron ore, metallurgical & thermal coal and liquefied natural gas are the main drivers of this trend in our index, while we expect gold prices to remain high.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (August 2025)