Overview

• Volatility in commodity markets continued in June, with a sharp correction in base metals, following the speculative surge recorded in May.
• NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index declined in Q2 – down by around 7.0% qoq in US dollar terms – as weaker trends for steel making commodities more than offset stronger gold, base metal and energy prices.
• We continue to see a broadly unfavourable economic environment for commodity markets. China’s domestic demand remains subdued, advanced economy activity is constrained by restrictive monetary policy and trade tensions are rising.
• We have made modest upward revisions to the forecasts for LNG and zinc this month – resulting in a slightly smaller annual decline in our index. NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 10.8% in 2024 in US dollar terms, and a further 14.0% in 2025 – led by coal and iron ore.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (July 2024)