NAB’s Wellbeing Index rebounded solidly in the June quarter, after falling to its lowest point in the history of the survey. Pressures remain. But the effort required has eased.
Report
March 5, 2024
Minerals & Energy Outlook: March 2024
NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024
Overview
- NAB’s Non-rural Commodity Price Index is expected to ease in Q1 2024 – down by around 3.3%. The key contributor to this downturn is liquefied natural gas (LNG), where a mild northern winter limited gas demand, allowing European storages to remain above its five-year average in late February.
- The impact of restrictive monetary policy in advanced economies and various headwinds to China’s economy should slow global economic growth to 2.8% in 2024. Outside the extreme outliers of the global financial crisis and the initial wave of COVID-19, this would be the weakest rate of growth since 2002. This is expected to negatively impact a broad range of commodities in 2024.
- In annual average terms, our USD index is forecast to fall by around 9.7% in 2024. This reflects falling prices for thermal coal along with iron ore and LNG. We forecast the Australian dollar to strengthen across 2024, meaning that there is a slightly larger decline in annual average AUD denominated commodity prices – down by 12.3%.
Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (March 2024)
