Minerals & Energy Outlook: November 2019

NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 7.9% quarter on quarter in Q4 2019.

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  • In US dollar terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to fall by 7.9% qoq in Q4 2019. Iron ore and LNG prices have fallen rapidly in recent months and these are the main contributors to the downturn.
  • Broadly, the global economic outlook remains negative for commodity markets – NAB Economics expects minimal recovery in global growth in 2020 – however progress towards the “Phase One” trade deal between the US and China has provided some optimism for global financial markets. That said, there remains uncertainty around the contents of any deal and the future trade relationship between the two countries.
  • In annual average terms, US dollar commodity prices are forecast to fall by 10.6% in 2020 – driven by declines in iron ore and metallurgical coal – and a further 0.7% in 2021.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook – November 2019