Overview

• The NAB Non-rural Commodity Price Index fell by around 3.6% qoq in Q3, with this downturn largely driven by metallurgical coal and iron ore. We expect a similar decline in Q4.
• The recent focus of commodity markets has been the announced monetary stimulus in China and expectations that this will be followed by fiscal support. This has seen a broad range of commodities – most notably iron ore, base metals and metallurgical coal – spike higher in early October.
• We argue that the measures implemented so far, along with the rumoured fiscal package, are somewhat underwhelming, when compared with China’s economic headwinds. This means that the recent commodity price increases are closer to irrational exuberance than a signal of shifting market conditions.
• As a result, we expect that our commodity price index will fall by 11.0% in 2024 and a further 13.6% in 2025, with iron ore and coal the main contributors to this trend.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook (October 2024)