• In US dollar terms, NAB’s Non-Rural Commodity Price Index is forecast to increase by 1.8% quarter on quarter in Q3 2019. Trends in individual commodities are highly mixed –with the increase led by a surge in LNG (up 15%) and gold (up almost 12%), while base metals and other energy (crude oil & thermal coal) are weaker.
• This quarter is expected to be the peak of the current commodity cycle –with demand set to weaken. Global economic growth has slowed and the trade war between the US and China has continued to escalate –impacting industrial consumers of commodities.
• In annual average terms, US dollar commodity prices are forecast to increase by 3.6% in 2019, before falling by 8.5% in 2020. The key contributors to this decline are iron ore and metallurgical coal while, in contrast, gold prices are forecast to rise next year.

Find out more in the Minerals & Energy Outlook – September 2019.