Overview

• In light of recent data and the RBA Governor’s statement this morning, we now see a fifth consecutive 50bp rate increase in October (previously 25bps). We continue to expect a 25bp rise in November taking the cash rate to 3.10%, which we see as a mildly contractionary policy setting.
• We still expect the RBA to pause the hiking cycle after November to assess the impact of rate hikes taken across 2022 and the evolution of inflation, the labour market, and the economy. We continue to expect GDP growth to slow in 2023 as higher rates weigh on consumers.

For further details, please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update – 16 September 2022