Overview

• NAB now sees the first rate rise in mid-2023– and a relatively aggressive series of hikes thereafter to bring the cash rate to 1.75-2.00% by end 2024.
• Core inflation is likely to remain around 2.3% for some time before supply constraints ease. Wages above 3% is still a key requirement to sustain inflation in mid target.
• YCC to end with the RBA showing little commitment to the 0.1% April 2024 target. RBA to pivot fully to outcomes-based forward guidance.
• QE to end by February 2022, little use for the policy with most other central banks ending or tapering their QE programs.

For further details, please see the NAB Monetary Policy Update – 29 October 2021