January 27, 2022

US Economic Update – 20 January 2022

Fed policy tightening brought forward.

Key highlights:

  • Q4 GDP growth expectations have lowered but still look robust.
  •  The current COVID-19 wave is likely to lead to a soft start to 2022 but demand for labour remains high and the unemployment rate continues to fall rapidly.
  •  As a result, we now expect the Fed to start lifting the fed funds rate at its March meeting.
  •  We also expect the Fed to announce the end of its asset purchases at the January meeting with an unwinding of its balance sheet (“QT”) likely to start towards the end of 2022.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (January 2022)

Markets Today – The Cool Out

Markets Today – The Cool Out

1 December 2023

After what has been a solid month for equities and bond investors, month end flows have probably play their part in the price action overnight, US equities have lost momentum, UST have led a rise in core global bond yields and the USD is stronger. US and European inflation releases favoured the notion the Fed and ECB are done with their respective tightening cycles.

Markets Today – The Cool Out
Markets Today – Sweet Spot

Markets Today – Sweet Spot

30 November 2023

Bond markets have been supported by some market-friendly data and while Fed speakers were again mixed, it was the more dovish remarks that captured attention.

Markets Today – Sweet Spot