Key highlights:

• Q4 GDP growth expectations have lowered but still look robust.
•  The current COVID-19 wave is likely to lead to a soft start to 2022 but demand for labour remains high and the unemployment rate continues to fall rapidly.
•  As a result, we now expect the Fed to start lifting the fed funds rate at its March meeting.
•  We also expect the Fed to announce the end of its asset purchases at the January meeting with an unwinding of its balance sheet (“QT”) likely to start towards the end of 2022.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update (January 2022)