Key highlights:

• GDP grew by 1.0% q/q in Q4 2020, but this headline figure masks a weakening in the economy as high rates of COVID-19 transmission and restrictions on mobility and activity took its toll over November/December.
• The substantial fiscal support passed at the end of 2020, with more expected, as well as the roll-out of vaccines, offers the hope of rapid growth emerging over 2021.
• As a result, we have revised up our 2021 GDP growth forecast to 4.5% (from 3.3%) and our 2022 forecast to 3.9% (from 2.4%). Fed funds rate to remain unchanged for the next two years at least.

Find out more in NAB’s US Economic Update – January 2021