US Economic Update – October 2022

Recession risk – Q3 breather likely temporary

By NAB Group Economics

Key highlights:

Incoming data point to GDP growth returning to positive territory in Q3, albeit the main driver is the volatile net exports component.
The Fed delivered a 75bp rate hike in September, as expected. However, member projections were hawkish and we have revised up our rate expectations – we now see a peak target range of 4.25-4.50% (previously 4.00-4.25%).
We still expect the US to enter recession in 2023. Reflecting tighter policy expectations, we have modestly lowered the GDP growth forecast and in 2023 we expect no growth (was 0.2%), including at least two quarters of negative growth.

Find out more in NAB’s US Update (October 2022)

Ana Marinkovic – Making the most of holiday trading

29 November 2023

The holiday season shopping flurry can offer some small businesses the opportunity to prosper… and others a time to take stock for the new year. Both call for careful preparation – particularly in the current environment. NAB Executive Small Business Ana Marinkovic shares her top tips.