Key highlights:

• Incoming data point to GDP growth returning to positive territory in Q3, albeit the main driver is the volatile net exports component.
• The Fed delivered a 75bp rate hike in September, as expected. However, member projections were hawkish and we have revised up our rate expectations – we now see a peak target range of 4.25-4.50% (previously 4.00-4.25%).
• We still expect the US to enter recession in 2023. Reflecting tighter policy expectations, we have modestly lowered the GDP growth forecast and in 2023 we expect no growth (was 0.2%), including at least two quarters of negative growth.

Find out more in NAB’s US Update (October 2022)