Author

David de Garis

“Dave writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets”

Dave is a Director and Senior Economist with the NAB.

His bread and butter work is as a business, treasury or financial markets economist, speaking with clients ranging from the Bank’s agribusiness and corporate clients as well as to institutional clients at home and abroad.

He’s writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets.

Dave did his economics apprenticeship with federal governments of various persuasions in Canberra, before he left Canberra in the late 1980s. He finished his indenture in Canberra as a senior economic adviser in the then Prime Minister Bob Hawke’s Department in Canberra, and before that in the Federal Treasury and the Bureau of Statistics.

Recently Published Articles

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

29 July 2021

A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
Markets Today: US equities back

Markets Today: US equities back

4 February 2020

US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.

Markets Today: US equities back
Markets Today: Can you deal with it

Markets Today: Can you deal with it

30 November 2018

The markets have been treading water ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, impacted a little by the news that Peter Navarro might also be attending the dinner.

Markets Today: Can you deal with it
Markets Today:  The waiting game

Markets Today: The waiting game

11 September 2018

No further news on tariffs overnight calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve.

Markets Today:  The waiting game
Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

6 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was higher despite continued woes in emerging markets, whilst the pound gained strength on positive hearsay on Brexit negotiations.

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster
Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

28 August 2018

There’s been a swift market response to a possible understanding between the US and Mexico to replace NAFTA, helping the Canadian Dollar as well as the Peso.

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact
Markets Today: Play with fire

Markets Today: Play with fire

6 August 2018

Markets revert to trade focus as China announces specific tariff rises on $60bn goods should the US $200bn threat come into force.

Markets Today: Play with fire
Markets Today: Pressure

Markets Today: Pressure

2 August 2018

The market reaction to today’s US announcement on Chinese import tariffs, the FOMC meeting this morning and a near certain rate rise from the Bank of England.

Markets Today: Pressure
Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

31 July 2018

Today, a session that has been high on movement, even though it’s been low on data. And the Bank of Japan’s attempts to control bond yields has impacted bond prices across the globe.

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ
Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

15 June 2018

The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019.

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays
Markets Today: 24 April 2018

Markets Today: 24 April 2018

24 April 2018

US 10 year Treasury yields are very close to 3 percent this morning. As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie its resulted in rising bond yields elsewhere, including Europe and Australia.

Markets Today: 24 April 2018
Markets Today: 28 March 2018

Markets Today: 28 March 2018

28 March 2018

Early in the session it looked like share trading in the US was going to build on the upward momentum of yesterday, but then a sudden shift in sentiment.

Markets Today: 28 March 2018
Markets Today: I won’t back down

Markets Today: I won’t back down

6 March 2018

Equity markets are back in the black this morning with Treasury yields modestly higher amid further focus on Trump tariffs, with an attempted push back from two key GoP members, but an undaunted Trump.

Markets Today: I won’t back down
Markets Today: 28 February 2018

Markets Today: 28 February 2018

28 February 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market reaction, which includes falling equities and rising bond yields.

Markets Today: 28 February 2018
Markets Today: 21 February 2018

Markets Today: 21 February 2018

21 February 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about what he was trying to say. Plus, the response to US Treasury auctions, what to expect from the Fed minutes, the latest expectation on Aussie rate rises and what’s the story with oil?

Markets Today: 21 February 2018
Markets Today:  Still breathing

Markets Today: Still breathing

15 February 2018

There was a sharp reaction to higher than expected CPI figures overnight but they have been tempered by weaker than expected retail figures.

Markets Today:  Still breathing
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

6 February 2018

It’s been another night for selling stocks, Europe taking up where the US and Asia left off (the Eurostoxx 600 was down 1.56%) and this set the tone for the US market.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot

Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot

29 January 2018

The dollar remains the hot topic, just as the weather has been in SE Australia with a slice of this summer’s heatwave coming through with a vengeance, not to mention Roger Federer’s fifth and winning set to reach 20 Grand Slam wins at the Australian Open.

Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot
Markets Today: Roll over lay down

Markets Today: Roll over lay down

25 January 2018

Speaking from Davos early in the London session, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set the tone for the session saying “obviously a weaker USD is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.”

Markets Today: Roll over lay down
Markets Today: She’s leaving home

Markets Today: She’s leaving home

14 December 2017

Markets overnight initially took the lead from a lower than expected print on US core CPI for November, missing the 0.2%/1.8% consensus by a tenth, at 0.1%/1.7%. Stocks rallied, the dollar faded as did Treasury yields.

Markets Today: She’s leaving home
Markets Today: She speeds

Markets Today: She speeds

12 December 2017

It’s been a night marked by a suicide bomb explosion in Times Square, an event that thankfully inflicted very contained damage to individuals and even less to market stability.

Markets Today: She speeds
Markets Today: Strong

Markets Today: Strong

24 November 2017

We wrote yesterday how the USD had been sold lower on the back of the cautious Yellen comments.

Markets Today: Strong
Markets Today: We are the world

Markets Today: We are the world

8 November 2017

It’s been a very quiet night for markets, the DXY and BBDXY making some net gains, but more from commodity currency weakness.

Markets Today: We are the world
Markets Today: Good day sunshine

Markets Today: Good day sunshine

1 November 2017

The news on the state of the US and European economies has been good overnight, adding more sunshine to the global growth acceleration story.

Markets Today: Good day sunshine
Markets Today: Friday on my mind

Markets Today: Friday on my mind

25 October 2017

US markets right have been caught between 1) the on-going negotiations over tax between the White House and Republicans, 2) who will be the next Fed Chair (the market seems to be positioning for a Taylor-Powell duo but there’s still no news), and 3) the course of the broader economy.

Markets Today: Friday on my mind
Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet

Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet

11 October 2017

It’s been a mix of events in the UK (better data), Europe (no immediate declared Catalan independence from Puigdemont) and the US (Trump tax politics and a softer NFIB report) that have provided the background for limited currency moves overnight.

Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet
Markets Today: Tax(pl)an

Markets Today: Tax(pl)an

28 September 2017

It’s been news filtering out over the past 24 hours of the Trump/Republican tax plan that understandably gathered the attention of markets and gotten USD bulls re-energised.

Markets Today: Tax(pl)an
Markets Today: Fly!

Markets Today: Fly!

18 September 2017

Another day on and the Pound has again been the star performer in the currency markets.

Markets Today: Fly!
Markets Today: Surprise, surprise

Markets Today: Surprise, surprise

15 September 2017

While the market’s focus was expected to be primarily on the US CPI print for August, there was much more market action across the Atlantic with the Pound soaring on the back of a near term rate rise warning from the Bank of England.

Markets Today: Surprise, surprise
Markets Today: Put down that weapon

Markets Today: Put down that weapon

30 August 2017

The “risk off” sentiment that overshadowed markets after the launch of yet another missile from North Korea didn’t even last 24 hours.

Markets Today: Put down that weapon
Markets Today: Rain

Markets Today: Rain

29 August 2017

With Jackson Hole out of the way, markets and related news have been more focussed on Hurricane Harvey, some more news stories out of the West Wing and the resumption of UK-EU Brexit talks. It was a bank holiday in the UK.

Markets Today: Rain
Markets Today: Exodus

Markets Today: Exodus

25 August 2017

Markets are little changed in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with little in the way of major FX moves to report.

Markets Today: Exodus
Markets Today: In the air tonight

Markets Today: In the air tonight

23 August 2017

It’s been a risk-on night, a night of some returning support for the USD, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.34% (the DXY by 0.46%), the Swiss Franc and the Yen seeing the larger declines overnight. The driver has been US politics and enlivened talk on tax reform.

Markets Today: In the air tonight
Markets Today:  Get it on

Markets Today: Get it on

25 July 2017

Judged by equity, bond, and commodity markets, it’s been well and truly a risk-on night, but it’s been more mixed as far as the currency market has been concerned.

Markets Today:  Get it on
Markets Today: Twelfth of never

Markets Today: Twelfth of never

21 July 2017

The pick-up in market price action has continued overnight in FX markets. For the AUD, it’s now pretty much all about the Guy Debelle speech today.

Markets Today: Twelfth of never
Markets Today: La Vie en Rose

Markets Today: La Vie en Rose

14 July 2017

It’s a nod to Bastille Day today and with the US President visiting France, declaring in a tweet his “unbreakable” relationship with the French President.

Markets Today: La Vie en Rose
Markets Today: Summer holiday

Markets Today: Summer holiday

11 July 2017

It’s been a very quiet start to the week, generally a night of consolidation for markets ahead of a calendar that sees the US earnings season unfold amid an array of central bankers meeting and speaking together with some data over the next 24-48 hours.

Markets Today: Summer holiday
Markets Today: Getting better

Markets Today: Getting better

30 June 2017

German and Spanish CPIs for June were released overnight – in a limited data schedule – and pointed to a better-than-expected print from tonight’s Eurozone CPI by 0.1% if not 0.2%. That’s added support to the EUR/USD and yields overnight, the Euro this morning at 1.1440.

Markets Today: Getting better
Markets Today: Goldfinger

Markets Today: Goldfinger

27 June 2017

In an otherwise relatively quiet night with only the mildest of risk-on tones, gold was something of a standout.

Markets Today: Goldfinger
Markets Today: Under pressure

Markets Today: Under pressure

21 June 2017

Almost out of default, the USD is higher in a night of virtually no key data, but not getting any clear support from a mixed set of Fed speak, Charles Evans (voter) sounding dovish and Kaplan too.

Markets Today: Under pressure
Markets Today: Janet

Markets Today: Janet

15 June 2017

The Fed this morning announced a hike in the Fed funds rate by ¼%, as entirely expected, lifting the Federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25%. But we walk in this morning with the big dollar having been pressured and the US Treasury curve lower. Another case of the usual “buy the rumour, sell the fact”?

Markets Today: Janet
Markets Today: American Dream

Markets Today: American Dream

14 June 2017

The performer among major currencies has been the Canadian dollar where recent strong hints from Senior Deputy BoC Governor Carolyn Wilkins that the Bank of Canada is shifting to a ‘tightening bias’ given signs of an improving economy continues to resonate with markets.

Markets Today: American Dream
Markets Today: Enjoy the silence

Markets Today: Enjoy the silence

30 May 2017

With the US and the UK markets closed for Memorial Day/Spring bank holidays, the focus in a quiet night was on European markets, specifically interest in ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech to the European Parliament.

Markets Today: Enjoy the silence
Markets Today: What goes on

Markets Today: What goes on

26 May 2017

It’s been a night where oil news took centre stage in the lead up to the end of the week with liquidity likely thinner today/tonight into the US long weekend with the US Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

Markets Today: What goes on
Markets Today: Problema

Markets Today: Problema

19 May 2017

The US market has taken a breather overnight, notwithstanding news very late in the overnight session yesterday that a Special Counsel (Robert Mueller, ex-FBI Director) was being appointed to investigate Russia’s involvement in the election.

Markets Today: Problema
Markets Today: Confessions Part II

Markets Today: Confessions Part II

18 May 2017

It’s been a real night of risk-off emanating from the US and the Twitter sphere going into overdrive over speculation around whether the President pressured James Comey – then FBI Director - to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former National Security Adviser, with Russia in the mix.

Markets Today: Confessions Part II
Markets Today: The inflation song

Markets Today: The inflation song

2 May 2017

It’s been a rather listless overnight session, US data has been on the disappointing side, US equities have been headed sideways, the USD did not build further on yesterday’s gains at the start to the week, while oil continues its march lower.

Markets Today: The inflation song
Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy

Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy

29 March 2017

Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.

Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy
Markets Today: Strong

Markets Today: Strong

28 March 2017

The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.

Markets Today: Strong
Markets Today: The crude oil blues

Markets Today: The crude oil blues

22 March 2017

The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.

Markets Today: The crude oil blues
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017

20 March 2017

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017
Markets Today: Process and the passion

Markets Today: Process and the passion

28 February 2017

In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 13.00 AEDT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction.

Markets Today: Process and the passion
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

24 February 2017

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
Markets Today: Read about it

Markets Today: Read about it

24 February 2017

More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Markets Today: Read about it
Markets Today: Up, up, and away

Markets Today: Up, up, and away

23 February 2017

It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.

Markets Today: Up, up, and away
Markets Today: Down, down

Markets Today: Down, down

17 February 2017

Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.

Markets Today: Down, down
Markets Today: Message to my market

Markets Today: Message to my market

9 February 2017

It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.

Markets Today: Message to my market
Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

7 February 2017

It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

3 February 2017

The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood
Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

1 February 2017

More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations
Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

24 January 2017

Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby
Markets Today: Walking back to happiness

Markets Today: Walking back to happiness

19 January 2017

It’s been a reversal back to USD strength overnight – including a late session kick along from the Fed Chair, more on that below - the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.35% before she stepped up to the plate, and another ½% since.

Markets Today: Walking back to happiness
Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings

Markets Today: Seasons Greetings

23 December 2016

As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.

Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings
Markets Today: We can work it out

Markets Today: We can work it out

20 December 2016

Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.

Markets Today: We can work it out
Markets Today: All things must pass

Markets Today: All things must pass

9 December 2016

Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both.

Markets Today: All things must pass
Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

6 December 2016

The market’s knee jerk reaction to “no” outcome from the Italian referendum saw the Euro fall back by over a big figure for an hour or so, but that was it.

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

28 November 2016

Rising oil prices from early this year and again from the middle of the year have been associated with rising medium-to-longer term US inflationary expectations (and indeed expectations globally).

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016
Markets Today: Magic bus

Markets Today: Magic bus

23 November 2016

The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.

Markets Today: Magic bus
Markets Today: Tangled up in red

Markets Today: Tangled up in red

17 November 2016

It’s been an overnight session of digestion and reflection for the market, one week on now from the Presidential election.

Markets Today: Tangled up in red
Markets Today: Party in the USA

Markets Today: Party in the USA

16 November 2016

It’s been a night in which the US bond market has staged a mediocre rally – not quite a party – for most of the session, tilted to the belly of the curve and the long end. It looks to have been some profit taking after the surge in yields since the US election.

Markets Today: Party in the USA
Markets Today: The heat is on

Markets Today: The heat is on

9 November 2016

And it’s on two fronts this morning. The first is of course the election outcome as America votes to elect its 45th President. The second story relates to news breaking out of China yesterday that the authorities are stepping in to take the heat out of coal and steel-related prices.

Markets Today: The heat is on
Markets Today: House of fun

Markets Today: House of fun

4 November 2016

The focus for markets overnight was well and truly back on the UK with Sterling the stand-out performer overnight, trading this morning with a solid 1.24 handle, a full three big figures above where it opened the week.

Markets Today: House of fun
Markets Today: Comin’ back soon

Markets Today: Comin’ back soon

3 November 2016

This Fed meeting came with no press conference and updated forecasts for this meeting; that next comes at the December 15 meeting.

Markets Today: Comin’ back soon
Markets Today: Counting the beat

Markets Today: Counting the beat

19 October 2016

Ahead of today’s welter of Chinese GDP and activity data, the AUD is trading this morning almost bang on where it was yesterday afternoon.

Markets Today: Counting the beat
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016

3 October 2016

Having just returned from a client tour this past week in the Riverina in southern NSW, there was also one topic that is currently front and centre for local farmers, and that was “rain”.

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016
Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow

Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow

3 October 2016

Who says fairy tales don’t come true with the Western Bulldogs and Cronulla both taking the silverware in the AFL and NRL grand finals over the weekend. Great results for both teams.

Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow
Markets Today: Up, up and away

Markets Today: Up, up and away

22 September 2016

It’s now a sea of green in the US equity markets in reaction to the Fed leaving rates on hold this morning, leaving the Fed funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, as nearly universally expected.

Markets Today: Up, up and away
Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

21 September 2016

A rather measured night again in the lead up to the FOMC tomorrow morning and the BoJ meeting today where the Bank has been honing its thinking on policy to lift inflation.

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over
Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

20 September 2016

Markets have been tapping their fingers overnight in the lead up to the Fed meeting. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, the USD only somewhat softer again with the US Treasury curve up 1-2 basis points for the session.

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams
Markets Today: Calm waters

Markets Today: Calm waters

15 September 2016

Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.

Markets Today: Calm waters
Markets Today: What a difference a day makes

Markets Today: What a difference a day makes

13 September 2016

Well there’s one conspiracy theory that has come to nought. That Fed Governor Brainard – a monetary policy dove to now – had become more policy hawkish and indicate that next week’s September 20-32 FOMC would be “live”.

Markets Today: What a difference a day makes
Markets Today: Proud Mario

Markets Today: Proud Mario

9 September 2016

Three main developments overnight, a spike in oil prices, a somewhat more content ECB President, and a renewed AUD warning from RBA Governor Stevens in an AFR interview, the AUD in the wake of the interview pulling back from over 0.77 to 0.7642 this morning.

Markets Today: Proud Mario
Markets Today: Speak now

Markets Today: Speak now

26 August 2016

In a night of still very contained major FX crosses, Fed commentary has started to kick in from Jackson Hole.

Markets Today: Speak now
Markets Today: Poundcake

Markets Today: Poundcake

24 August 2016

It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.

Markets Today: Poundcake
Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

17 August 2016

It was an overnight session marked by two Fed speakers banging the drum (not as strongly as Keith Moon used to) warning that even the September 22 FOMC is not off the radar for a Fed rate increase.

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again
Markets Today: Relax

Markets Today: Relax

10 August 2016

The overnight session was neither strongly risk-on nor risk-off; the AUD has been testing higher levels overnight with the big dollar sold lower during the US session.

Markets Today: Relax
Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

5 August 2016

It was pretty much all about the Bank of England overnight ahead of payrolls tonight. As my colleague from London Nick Parsons reminded us, there was the real potential for the BoE to over-promise and under-deliver, net GBP shorts according to IMM data at the greatest level of this series.

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

2 August 2016

Released overnight, the US ISM Manufacturing release for July was barely a miss, coming in at 52.6 against consensus of 53.0.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

1 August 2016

Weaker than expected US economic growth for the June quarter after an underwhelming outcome from the Bank of Japan on Friday set the tone for markets on Friday and at the open today.

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?
Markets Today: Rumours

Markets Today: Rumours

28 July 2016

The revelation that the underlying CPI was not another repeat of the first quarter when growth was an anaemic 0.2% but pushed up this quarter to 0.5% had the market rethinking and repricing whether the RBA was indeed more likely than not to cut rates again next week.

Markets Today: Rumours
Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

22 July 2016

The ECB’s policy meeting has come and gone without any policy action, though none was expected. At 1.1025, the EUR sits where it was late yesterday in the wake of some intra-session ECB meeting volatility.

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer
Markets Today: Strange brew

Markets Today: Strange brew

20 July 2016

Yesterday’s RBA Minutes with its dovish take and concerns about the activity side of the economy saw the local rates market move to price in a higher above-50% probability of an August RBA move (from 59% to 63%).

Markets Today: Strange brew
Markets Today: 2 Become 1

Markets Today: 2 Become 1

12 July 2016

Anna Leadsom has stood down as a candidate for leadership of the UK Conservative Party, paving the way for Home Secretary Theresa May to be the next Prime Minister, expected to be formally installed Wednesday after PM Cameron’s resignation.

Markets Today: 2 Become 1
Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

8 July 2016

It was an eventful news day for the AUD yesterday, even if the currency was little changed, and is not breaking new ground this morning, S&P yesterday changing the outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)
Markets Today: Waves

Markets Today: Waves

1 July 2016

As a BBC commentator described it this morning, providing it doesn’t violate the laws of thermodynamics, anything can happen inside the British Conservative Party.

Markets Today: Waves
Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

29 June 2016

Whether it’s a near to end-quarter rebalancing or just some short-term perceived value after the knee-jerk post-Brexit sell off, risk appetite had something of a positive session overnight with equities and top-tier bond yields higher.

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place
Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

21 June 2016

The risk-on mood that developed as Asia markets opened yesterday on the back of the weekend poll from the Sunday Mirror pointing to a swing back to the remain vote gathered more force overnight, especially in European markets.

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

Brexit and local farm conditions too Thursday’s UK EU Referendum will occupy market attention this week. A poll being conducted by ComRes for the UK Sunday Mirror at the time news of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox hit the wires revealed a switch in voting favouring the remain vote. The percentage of those […]

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016
Markets Today: Signs

Markets Today: Signs

15 June 2016

As US markets close and Asia opens this morning, further damage to sentiment has been relatively limited.

Markets Today: Signs
Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

2 June 2016

The final May Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were left unrevised at 51.5, while the US Manufacturing ISM headline popped a little higher to 51.3 from 50.8 (50.3 was forecast).

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive
Markets Today: Hold on

Markets Today: Hold on

31 May 2016

As far as the foreign exchange markets were concerned, the USD was a touch softer overnight after having made some gains in the Asia session yesterday.

Markets Today: Hold on
Markets Today: Inch by inch

Markets Today: Inch by inch

26 May 2016

It’s been another night of measured markets with both European and US equities closing higher, US Treasury yields a little higher net on the day and the USD marking time. There has been a little more evident appetite for Sterling, while the Canadian dollar was also a little stronger, helped by higher oil prices and the Bank of Canada leaving rates on hold, as expected.

Markets Today: Inch by inch
Markets Today: Sailing

Markets Today: Sailing

24 May 2016

Markets have been generally drifting with FX, equity markets and bond yields trading in contained ranges. The short end of the US Treasury curve edged a little higher.

Markets Today: Sailing
Markets Today: On the prowl

Markets Today: On the prowl

19 May 2016

It was the release this morning of the FOMC April Minutes that’s gotten the attention of the wires and a noticeable chunk of market reaction to boot in rates, currencies, equities and gold.

Markets Today: On the prowl
Markets Today: Kiwi

Markets Today: Kiwi

11 May 2016

The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37.

Markets Today: Kiwi
Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

27 April 2016

While the market is very sensitive to the CPI and the AUD and rates markets might see an immediate knee-jerk reaction, the market is not hanging on this number as one that might swing the RBA into action or inaction at upcoming meetings.

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me
Markets Today: When doves cry

Markets Today: When doves cry

22 April 2016

The AUD has flown back down with the 77 handle this morning, pulled back somewhat by a dip in oil prices for once, WTI down $0.59 to $43.60 and Brent off $0.91 to $44.89, the Aussie’s commodity cousins, the CAD, NOK, RUB and the NZD all lower this morning.

Markets Today: When doves cry
Markets Today: Taking care of business

Markets Today: Taking care of business

13 April 2016

Yesterday’s NAB Business Survey bolted a stronger 76 handle on to the AUD, the currency finding support through the day and again overnight, trading this morning toward the top of its overnight range, currently at 0.7685/90, up 1.2%.

Markets Today: Taking care of business
Markets Today: Handle with care

Markets Today: Handle with care

1 April 2016

It’s been a night of consolidation in the main as markets await the arrival of key data over the next 24 hours with Super Friday’s deluge.

Markets Today: Handle with care
Markets Today: Drift away

Markets Today: Drift away

24 March 2016

The commodity currencies were sold lower overnight, with the AUD feeling the brunt of the selling.

Markets Today: Drift away
Markets Today: Night moves

Markets Today: Night moves

23 March 2016

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens speech yesterday came and went without any fanfare as far as AUD comment was concerned

Markets Today: Night moves
Markets Today: Power trip

Markets Today: Power trip

4 March 2016

It has not been a massive night in terms of market direction, the Australian dollar again capturing interest and making some further net gains.

Markets Today: Power trip
FW: Markets Today: Back in black

FW: Markets Today: Back in black

25 February 2016

It was a session of two halves with a risk off during European session spilling into the first part of the New York sessio/

FW: Markets Today: Back in black
Markets Today: Carry on

Markets Today: Carry on

18 February 2016

It was something of a risk-on night with commodity and emerging market currencies back in favour for once.

Markets Today: Carry on
Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life

Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life

5 February 2016

In the words of my BNZ colleague Jason Wong, not even strong words by ECB President Draghi and BOJ Governor Kuroda have been enough to talk down their currencies against the big dollar’s recent dip.

Markets Today: The circle of monetary policy life
Markets Today: I walk the line

Markets Today: I walk the line

28 January 2016

The FOMC post meeting statement played a very straight bat, not locking themselves in to one course or the other as far as the March 17 meeting decision is concerned.

Markets Today: I walk the line
Markets Today: Runaway train

Markets Today: Runaway train

21 January 2016

Another volatile night my friends. Well that was as far as equity markets are concerned the E600 European index down a cool 3.2%.

Markets Today: Runaway train
Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight

Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight

22 December 2015

Spanish politics has been a watch point for markets since the weekend with the national election not producing a clear majority for any one party and not an obvious coalition likely to be formed, according to Spanish political commentators.

Markets Today: Spain in the political spotlight
Markets Today: Slip sliding away

Markets Today: Slip sliding away

11 December 2015

A lot of the attention overnight remained centred on the commodity space with oil prices down another 1%, Brent crude at $39.70, down 0.97%.

Markets Today: Slip sliding away
Markets Today: More commodity carnage

Markets Today: More commodity carnage

8 December 2015

Commodities were front and centre of market attention overnight, with oil prices taking another sizeable hit, both WTI and Brent crude down between 5-6% in the wake of OPEC officially abandoning its 30mb target late last week.

Markets Today: More commodity carnage
Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive

Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive

3 December 2015

“Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of our goals,” Fed Chair Yellen told the Economic Club of Washington overnight.

Markets Today: Keeping the dream well and truly alive
Markets Today: Sterling effort

Markets Today: Sterling effort

12 November 2015

Lots of interest overnight whether ECB President Mario Draghi would throw more fuel onto the ECB stimulus expectation fire, schedule to speak at a BoE sponsored open forum on Financial Market Reform event in London.

Markets Today: Sterling effort
Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger

Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger

11 November 2015

Not a big night as far as market movements are concerned, one extension of a theme being the continued ascendancy of the big dollar that has gained a little more momentum, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.12%.

Markets Today: Big dollar getting a little bigger
Markets Today: Fado fading?

Markets Today: Fado fading?

10 November 2015

A night of consolidation for markets with inconsequential data not pushing markets one way or the other.

Markets Today: Fado fading?
Markets Today: On standby

Markets Today: On standby

6 November 2015

Not a massive session as far as new market direction was concerned overnight ahead of payrolls tonight.

Markets Today: On standby
Markets Today: Front and centre

Markets Today: Front and centre

5 November 2015

Markets took their cue from Fed Chair Janet Yellen overnight, testifying before the US House Financial Services Committee on bank regulation.

Markets Today: Front and centre
Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin

Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin

2 November 2015

Unlike Wednesday and Thursday morning (post FOMC, RBNZ), Friday was not a big night for markets and following the BoJ’s earlier ‘no change’. End of month rebalancing flows appeared to dominate price action, meaning a slightly softer US dollar (DXY -0.35%, BBDXY -0.42%).

Markets Today: New Zealand Finishes Ahead By Significant Margin
Markets Today: On the road again

Markets Today: On the road again

30 October 2015

With the echo of the FOMC still ringing in its ear, the market re-priced the odds of the Fed moving in December, lifting the probability to a 50/50 call, those odds having been tracking at a less than one in three chance before the FOMC.

Markets Today: On the road again
Today’s Market Update: What to buy

Today’s Market Update: What to buy

28 October 2015

The US dollar sits near the top of the currency leader board this morning, retaining its composure, though more by default of weakness elsewhere.

Today’s Market Update: What to buy
Markets Today: The countdown

Markets Today: The countdown

27 October 2015

It was a contained night for markets, equities a little heavy for no apparent reason other than perhaps some nerves ahead of Thursday morning’s FOMC announcement.

Markets Today: The countdown
Markets Today: Easy

Markets Today: Easy

23 October 2015

ECB President Draghi stepped up to the plate last night, setting equity markets alight and scuttling the EUR. Draghi effectively preannounced further easing in policy at its 3 December meeting.

Markets Today: Easy
Markets Today: A bit of a yawner

Markets Today: A bit of a yawner

21 October 2015

The NZD at least has shown some movement and to some surprise, the Canadian dollar sits at the top of the G10 FX leader-board.

Markets Today: A bit of a yawner
Markets Today: A minute of your time

Markets Today: A minute of your time

9 October 2015

The Sep FOMC minutes came and went and when all is said and done, it has not clarified whether the Fed is likely to be hiking before year end or later.

Markets Today: A minute of your time
Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets

Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets

6 October 2015

It was a night for risk assets again with the S&P closing out its fifth day of gains, up another 1.85% with EM and European equities also performing well, the Eurostoxx 600 index up a cool 3.01%, with a sea of green gains across this writer’s screen.

Markets Today: Lower for longer aura supports risk assets
Markets Today: There is something to see here

Markets Today: There is something to see here

5 October 2015

Anyone looking for redeeming features in Friday’s soft US payrolls report was reduced to noting that the weakness in average earnings (flat on the month and unchanged at 2.2% y/y) may have been down to the fact that the Sep 15 mid-month pay day was excluded from the calculation

Markets Today: There is something to see here
Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth

Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth

28 September 2015

In this weekly update we tease out some implications of slower population growth that’s been evident now for the past two years, with a further step down reported by the Australian Statistician last week.

Australian Markets Weekly: Slower population growth
Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again

Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again

25 September 2015

Another choppy night of trading with hints of risk-off still dogging equity markets and supporting bond markets, while commodities were non-directional with copper down marginally but other metals mostly rose, including the yellow metal.

Markets Today: Yellen fires up the big dollar again
Markets Today: Mixed emotions

Markets Today: Mixed emotions

24 September 2015

It’s been a night of mixed emotions as far as risk sentiment is concerned. It was not helped initially by yesterday’s weaker China manufacturing reading, and the quickly emerging shadow of Volkswagen’s issues.

Markets Today: Mixed emotions
Markets Today: Stiff upper lip

Markets Today: Stiff upper lip

11 September 2015

It was the makings of a risk-on mood for markets overnight and a night when the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was hanging tough about the healthy outlook for the UK economy and still harbouring thoughts of a UK rate rise coming into focus in the first part of next year.

Markets Today: Stiff upper lip
Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers

Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers

7 September 2015

In this Weekly, we are enclosing a recent research piece from our Senior Currency Strategist Emma Lawson on the commodities that are (and which will be) important drivers of the Australian dollar, including the outlook. We also preview local data and RBA speeches for the week ahead.

Australian Markets Weekly: AUD’s Commodity Drivers
Markets Today: Let’s get loud

Markets Today: Let’s get loud

4 September 2015

The Euro is weaker this morning and the USD a touch stronger thanks to ECB President Draghi banging the drum about QE, the ECB staff downgrading their Euro-zone growth and inflation forecasts and a pretty comforting slug of US data.

Markets Today: Let’s get loud
Markets Today: Joyride

Markets Today: Joyride

3 September 2015

A more measured night. Shanghai finished down smalls yesterday (-0.2%) ahead of a four day long weekend to mark China’s victory in WWII and while European bourses had something of a see-saw night closed higher.

Markets Today: Joyride
Markets Today: Would I lie to you

Markets Today: Would I lie to you

1 September 2015

Equity markets harboured something of a defensive tone, but the oil market kicked higher again on the little to no fundamental news, signs of a classic short squeeze.

Markets Today: Would I lie to you
Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest

Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest

24 August 2015

The Economist this week carries a topical article on commodities, “Goodbye to all that: a decade of binging on raw materials may leave an even longer hangover”, outlining the pressure on producers now from declining prices.

Australian Markets Weekly: Survival of the fittest
Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing

Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing

14 August 2015

Further weakness in oil prices, a more settled Chinese renminbi and a solid US July retail sales report caught the market’s attention overnight. News of disruption to the major Chinese port of Tianjin after the explosion Wednesday has not so far affected the outlook for iron ore prices too much.

Markets Today: The Middle Kingdom keeps the market guessing
Markets Today: T-38 and counting

Markets Today: T-38 and counting

11 August 2015

With just over a month to go until the Sep 18 FOMC meeting announcement, Fed speakers remain right under the spotlight. Last night we heard from two, Denis Lockhart, Atlanta Fed President and voter and Stanley Fischer, no 2 at the Fed each with their own perspective.

Markets Today: T-38 and counting
Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race

Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race

7 August 2015

Interest overnight in what the BoE Governor had to say after their meeting and how “hawkish” he might be, focus of course also in their forecasts in the latest quarterly Inflation Report.

Markets Today: Behind in a two horse race
Markets Today: Where you go, I follow

Markets Today: Where you go, I follow

4 August 2015

Oil took centre stage last night with West Texas Intermediate down 3.8% to $45.33/bbl and Brent crude down a cool 5.0% to $49.60, WTI the lowest since March 19 and Brent below $50/bbl for the first time since January when oil selling was at its most intense.

Markets Today: Where you go, I follow
Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA

Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA

3 August 2015

Event risk aplenty this week with the RBA August Board meeting tomorrow, Friday’s RBA Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) and key economy reports. Among those data points, the most market sensitive is tomorrow’s retail sales along with a wider trade deficit.

Australian Markets Weekly: Growth divide still a focus for the RBA
Markets Today: From Greece to China

Markets Today: From Greece to China

28 July 2015

Very much a risk-off night for markets with equities and some commodities taking the brunt after Chinese stocks lurched lower in afternoon trade to finish down an eye-glazing 8½% on the day. A year ago, the Shanghai composite was 2,177; yesterday it closed at 3,752.

Markets Today: From Greece to China
Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper

Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper

24 July 2015

It’s been a night again where the market has not had to be besotted with global geo-politics such as Greece and has been able to focus on the flow of data and more reports out of the US earnings season.

Markets Today: Dr Copper not a happy camper
Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece

Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece

17 July 2015

Not big moves on the currency front overnight, though the USD was somewhat stronger as the ECB announced that it had turned on the liquidity spigot for Greece again and what data there was for the US was added a little more incremental evidence the economy is making further progress.

Markets Today: ECB opens up the liquidity spigot for Greece
Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey

13 July 2015

After a drawn out sequence of EuroGroup, EU Leaders and side meetings through last week, the EU Leaders have been meeting overnight in another drawn out and, at times, acrimonious attempt to put together a deal that would result in a third bailout package and keep Greece in the Euro.

Australian Markets Weekly: Greece, still, Yellen, China and NAB Survey
Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off

Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off

30 June 2015

We expected this week to be one of fast moving events, and that’s how it’s playing out. Greek PM Alex Tsipras has been speaking saying that he will do whatever he can to protect the Greek people

Markets Today: High drama as the week kicks off
Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?

Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?

26 June 2015

If you had come in this morning, looked at the news released on the US economy overnight and how the US bond and equity markets had traded, you would not be surprised at all with the prices on the screen this morning, irrespective of what has and has not been going on as far as Greece is concerned.

Markets Today: Still no result on Greece: Any surprise?
Australian Weekly Markets:  Last chance for Greece, again

Australian Weekly Markets: Last chance for Greece, again

22 June 2015

Here we are again, still writing about Greece. Will a deal be put together that is acceptable to Greece and its creditors? Greece is asking for debt relief, Europe asking for further economic reforms to pensions and taxation. The 11th hour for Greece is approaching, yet again.

Australian Weekly Markets:  Last chance for Greece, again
Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue

Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue

12 June 2015

It’s been a whippy, but in the event, mostly an up week for the AUD, starting with a better NAB Business Survey for May, disappointing consumer confidence, RBA’s Stevens keeping the rate easing door ajar and yesterday’s strong employment report.

Markets Today: US$ showing some fatigue
Markets Today: Another step down the road we go

Markets Today: Another step down the road we go

5 June 2015

As has been touted in recent days, the IMF confirmed that Greece has asked the IMF to bundle its four June payments into one, delaying therefore the €301mn payment due to the Fund tonight

Markets Today: Another step down the road we go
Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece

Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece

29 May 2015

Greece news and chatter continues to permeate markets as Greece gets closer to the first payment to the IMF due June 5. Reports of continued losses at Greek banks and deposit outflows continues to weigh on sentiment as liquidity remains at a premium.

Markets Today: Many eyes still on Greece
Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts

Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts

22 May 2015

The Euro-zone preliminary PMI readings for May hit the screens early in the European session, revealing something of a net recovery for the Euro-zone, the manufacturing index up to 52.3 from 52.0.

Markets Today: Manufacturing a recovery of sorts
Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie

Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie

6 May 2015

It’s been a very eventful past two sessions for the AUD that sits atop the major FX leader board, trading at 0.7935 in early trade this morning. The reaction of the AUD immediately after the RBA statement said it all.

Markets Today: Yields still king for the Aussie
Markets Today: Stand and deliver

Markets Today: Stand and deliver

5 May 2015

A night of recent ranges as far as the major currencies was the order of the overnight session, the AUD/USD marking time ahead of the RBA decision today at 2.30pm. As background to the $A, iron ore spot prices pulled back again yesterday by $0.95 to $56.18, gold rose 1.13% and LME copper by 1.0%.

Markets Today: Stand and deliver
Markets Today: The battle for the low end

Markets Today: The battle for the low end

24 April 2015

It was a case of softer than expected readings on both sides of the Atlantic overnight, but in the wash up, the market was inclined to give more credence to the softer suite of US economy reports than for Europe’s.

Markets Today: The battle for the low end
Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return

Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return

23 April 2015

AUD/NZD parity party celebrations will just have to be put back into the cupboard for now, courtesy of yesterday’s higher than expected AU CPI, headline and underlying inflation higher by up to a tenth.

Markets Today: Iron ore sees some support return
Markets Today: Parity party anyone?

Markets Today: Parity party anyone?

22 April 2015

Watching the horrific wind and rain maps of the Sydney area must have seen many planes circling and hoping to land or simply stuck on the tarmac. Markets were also in a holding pattern overnight.

Markets Today: Parity party anyone?
Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely

Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely

16 March 2015

We preview this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and look to tomorrow’s RBA March Board Minutes. The focus will be on the Committee’s forward guidance and forecasts, and whether they can still be “patient” before beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy.

Australian Markets Weekly: A measure of Fed “patience” still likely
Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up

Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up

16 February 2015

If there was any take away from last week’s January labour force report it was that a gradual trend rise in Australia’s unemployment rate remains in place. And this is despite some modest increase in the underlying pace of new job creation.

Australian Markets Weekly: Recruitment & unemployment up
Markets homing in on the Euro

Markets homing in on the Euro

27 January 2015

The US$ ended last week on a strong note and started the week with more momentum, aided by further Euro weakness. The Greek election has come and gone with anti-austerity Syriza Party winning the largest number of seats with its young leader Alexis Tsipras the winner.

Markets homing in on the Euro
Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan

Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan

19 January 2015

Nothing could be clearer than the current economic and policy divide than between the US and Europe. As the Fed ponders rate lift-off and US consumer sentiment hits its highest level for 11 years, the ECB last week has been putting together a QE plan that will get some sort of approval from Germany.

Draghi putting together a compromise QE plan
Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore

Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore

16 January 2015

The big news overnight was the completely unexpected Swiss National Bank abandoning its EUR/CHF 1.20 floor it’s been defending since September 2011. As recently as last week, the 1.20 floor was described by SNB President Thomas Jordan as “absolutely central” in light of negative inflation.

Frankly, we won’t defend it anymore
Commodity market volatility the order of the day

Commodity market volatility the order of the day

15 January 2015

There’s been some more significant price action in commodities to report from the past 24 hours. At lunchtime yesterday Asian LME metals prices went into free-fall on the back of no apparent news other than playing catch up to what we’ve seen on oil and maybe even the AUD.

Commodity market volatility the order of the day
Still testing its specific gravity

Still testing its specific gravity

14 January 2015

Oil remains the centre of attention though the further dip not of the same cathartic proportions as the night before but enough it seems to continue to dog equity market sentiment, US energy stocks down another 1.2% with WTI and Brent down 0.4% and 0.8% respectively.

Still testing its specific gravity
Oil prices take another lashing

Oil prices take another lashing

13 January 2015

Oil prices have again been the stand out story overnight with Brent now clearly below $50/bbl, having tested below $50 last week, and both WTI and Brent down 5-5½% overnight to below $46 for WTI and currently $46.66 for Brent.

Oil prices take another lashing
Markets whip-sawed across asset classes

Markets whip-sawed across asset classes

16 December 2014

Hard to know where to start this report with extremely whippy and severe movements across asset classes overnight. It was a wild night for all sorts of reasons, not the least being the siege in Sydney’s CBD that was ended in the early hours of this morning with a sad loss of life for some innocent people.

Markets whip-sawed across asset classes
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

15 December 2014

Last Friday saw the third annual pre-Xmas interview of the RBA Governor by the Australian Financial Review. The headlines were: "Governor wants an $A at 75cents" and "RBA pushes back on rates cuts".

Australian Markets Weekly
Oil takes another hit

Oil takes another hit

15 December 2014

There was another step lower in oil prices on Friday night with Brent down another $1.69/bbl to $61.09 and WTI $-2.14 to $57.81. No surprise then that US consumers are rejoicing at the prospect of lower gasoline prices.

Oil takes another hit
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

8 December 2014

e week commences against the backdrop of Friday’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report for November (which included favourable diffusion indexes and temp help trends signalling ongoing stronger outcomes).

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

22 September 2014

In their most recent quarterly RBA Bulletin released last week, the RBA published a summary of their business liaison program, how they use that to stay abreast of current business conditions and how it has been invaluable in providing warnings of any sudden changes in the business cycle.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian economy still growing in Q2

Australian economy still growing in Q2

3 September 2014

After (unrevised) growth of 1.1% in the March quarter, growth of 0.5% in Q2 with the known 0.9% drag from net exports was a more than respectable outcome. Headline growth was a tad above the 0.4% consensus and our own 0.2% call.

Australian economy still growing in Q2
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China update

29 August 2014

RBA on hold Tuesday, Stevens speaking and a soft GDP report Wednesday, along with mixed July data: strong retail sales but soft building approvals. Pre-Q2 GDP partials also due Mon/Tues; NAB Online retail index due Wednesday

Australia, New Zealand and China update
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

25 August 2014

As part of the current local reporting season last week, we heard that both the Gladstone and Australia Pacific LNG projects are on track and on budget.

Australian Markets Weekly
RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce

RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce

20 August 2014

The RBA’s half-yearly testimony had a somewhat more positive tone without going overboard on growth specifics nor on when a more discernible upturn might arrive. (The Bank’s formal forecasts were of course outlined in their quarterly statement earlier).

RBA still willing to give the transition story time to coalesce
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian Markets Weekly

19 August 2014

Speaking with clients in Adelaide last week, it was something of a surprise that the NAB Business Survey improved further in July, with NAB Business Conditions making some further ground to now be above its long term average.

Australian Markets Weekly
Australian Markets Weekly

Australian markets weekly

11 August 2014

A final word on the Australia-US labour market comparison we wrote about last week. We would not have been surprised to see the US rate lower than Australia’s rate by now before seeing July’s US non-farm payrolls and Australia’s Labour Force report as they had almost converged

Australian Markets Weekly
Australia, New Zealand and China update

Australia, New Zealand and China Update

7 July 2014

There are some more meaty reports due on the economy this week, commencing with the ANZ Job Ads report for June (L: -5.6%), a last partial look into labour demand ahead of Thursday’s labour force report.

Australia, New Zealand and China update