David de Garis

David de Garis

Director and Senior Economist

“Dave writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets”

Dave is a Director and Senior Economist with the NAB.

His bread and butter work is as a business, treasury or financial markets economist, speaking with clients ranging from the Bank’s agribusiness and corporate clients as well as to institutional clients at home and abroad.

He’s writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets.

Dave did his economics apprenticeship with federal governments of various persuasions in Canberra, before he left Canberra in the late 1980s. He finished his indenture in Canberra as a senior economic adviser in the then Prime Minister Bob Hawke’s Department in Canberra, and before that in the Federal Treasury and the Bureau of Statistics.


After some mis-communication in March, ECB President Mario Draghi chose his words especially carefully and stuck to his script at his post ECB press conference overnight.

Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.

The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.

The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.

The market opened yesterday in the Asia session where it closed on Friday with the USD and Treasury yields in retreat.

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 13.00 AEDT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction.

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.

Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.

It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.

It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.

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