Author

David de Garis

“Dave writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets”

Dave is a Director and Senior Economist with the NAB.

His bread and butter work is as a business, treasury or financial markets economist, speaking with clients ranging from the Bank’s agribusiness and corporate clients as well as to institutional clients at home and abroad.

He’s writes for the Bank’s daily and weekly economics and market reports, and speaks with the media, often on a day to day basis speaking about the economy and financial markets.

Dave did his economics apprenticeship with federal governments of various persuasions in Canberra, before he left Canberra in the late 1980s. He finished his indenture in Canberra as a senior economic adviser in the then Prime Minister Bob Hawke’s Department in Canberra, and before that in the Federal Treasury and the Bureau of Statistics.

Recently Published Articles

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’

29 July 2021

A couple of comments from the Fed chair during the post-FOMC meeting Statement have been responsible for most of the market price action, notably, Powell’s remarks “we’re some ways away from substantial progress on jobs” and that “the Fed is nowhere near considering raising rates”.

Markets Today: Markets turn as Powell reaffirms ‘some way to go’
Markets Today: US equities back

Markets Today: US equities back

4 February 2020

US equities bounced back today – perhaps because there wasn’t a lot of new news on the coronavirus but also because US ISM numbers exceeding expectations.

Markets Today: US equities back
Markets Today: Can you deal with it

Markets Today: Can you deal with it

30 November 2018

The markets have been treading water ahead of the meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi at the G20 this weekend, impacted a little by the news that Peter Navarro might also be attending the dinner.

Markets Today: Can you deal with it
Markets Today:  The waiting game

Markets Today: The waiting game

11 September 2018

No further news on tariffs overnight calmed down emerging markets overnight and gave the Aussie dollar a short reprieve.

Markets Today:  The waiting game
Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster

6 September 2018

The Aussie dollar was higher despite continued woes in emerging markets, whilst the pound gained strength on positive hearsay on Brexit negotiations.

Markets Today: Life is a rollercoaster
Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact

28 August 2018

There’s been a swift market response to a possible understanding between the US and Mexico to replace NAFTA, helping the Canadian Dollar as well as the Peso.

Markets Today: Peso up on trade pact
Markets Today: Play with fire

Markets Today: Play with fire

6 August 2018

Markets revert to trade focus as China announces specific tariff rises on $60bn goods should the US $200bn threat come into force.

Markets Today: Play with fire
Markets Today: Pressure

Markets Today: Pressure

2 August 2018

The market reaction to today’s US announcement on Chinese import tariffs, the FOMC meeting this morning and a near certain rate rise from the Bank of England.

Markets Today: Pressure
Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ

31 July 2018

Today, a session that has been high on movement, even though it’s been low on data. And the Bank of Japan’s attempts to control bond yields has impacted bond prices across the globe.

Markets Today: FAANGs bitten; bonds hit by BoJ
Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays

15 June 2018

The ECB announced today, as anticipated, that their QE program will finish at the end of the year. But markets weren’t quite expecting the anticipated delay in raising rates – which could be late in 2019.

Markets Today: Euro trashed on ECB hike delays
Markets Today: 24 April 2018

Markets Today: 24 April 2018

24 April 2018

US 10 year Treasury yields are very close to 3 percent this morning. As NAB’s David de Garis explains to Phil Dobbie its resulted in rising bond yields elsewhere, including Europe and Australia.

Markets Today: 24 April 2018
Markets Today: 28 March 2018

Markets Today: 28 March 2018

28 March 2018

Early in the session it looked like share trading in the US was going to build on the upward momentum of yesterday, but then a sudden shift in sentiment.

Markets Today: 28 March 2018
Markets Today: I won’t back down

Markets Today: I won’t back down

6 March 2018

Equity markets are back in the black this morning with Treasury yields modestly higher amid further focus on Trump tariffs, with an attempted push back from two key GoP members, but an undaunted Trump.

Markets Today: I won’t back down
Markets Today: 28 February 2018

Markets Today: 28 February 2018

28 February 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s David de Garis about the market reaction, which includes falling equities and rising bond yields.

Markets Today: 28 February 2018
Markets Today: 21 February 2018

Markets Today: 21 February 2018

21 February 2018

Phil Dobbie talks to NAB’s Tapas Strickland about what he was trying to say. Plus, the response to US Treasury auctions, what to expect from the Fed minutes, the latest expectation on Aussie rate rises and what’s the story with oil?

Markets Today: 21 February 2018
Markets Today:  Still breathing

Markets Today: Still breathing

15 February 2018

There was a sharp reaction to higher than expected CPI figures overnight but they have been tempered by weaker than expected retail figures.

Markets Today:  Still breathing
Markets Today: Low

Markets Today: Low

6 February 2018

It’s been another night for selling stocks, Europe taking up where the US and Asia left off (the Eurostoxx 600 was down 1.56%) and this set the tone for the US market.

Markets Today: Low
Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot

Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot

29 January 2018

The dollar remains the hot topic, just as the weather has been in SE Australia with a slice of this summer’s heatwave coming through with a vengeance, not to mention Roger Federer’s fifth and winning set to reach 20 Grand Slam wins at the Australian Open.

Markets Today: Hot, hot, hot
Markets Today: Roll over lay down

Markets Today: Roll over lay down

25 January 2018

Speaking from Davos early in the London session, US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin set the tone for the session saying “obviously a weaker USD is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.”

Markets Today: Roll over lay down
Markets Today: She’s leaving home

Markets Today: She’s leaving home

14 December 2017

Markets overnight initially took the lead from a lower than expected print on US core CPI for November, missing the 0.2%/1.8% consensus by a tenth, at 0.1%/1.7%. Stocks rallied, the dollar faded as did Treasury yields.

Markets Today: She’s leaving home
Markets Today: She speeds

Markets Today: She speeds

12 December 2017

It’s been a night marked by a suicide bomb explosion in Times Square, an event that thankfully inflicted very contained damage to individuals and even less to market stability.

Markets Today: She speeds
Markets Today: Strong

Markets Today: Strong

24 November 2017

We wrote yesterday how the USD had been sold lower on the back of the cautious Yellen comments.

Markets Today: Strong
Markets Today: We are the world

Markets Today: We are the world

8 November 2017

It’s been a very quiet night for markets, the DXY and BBDXY making some net gains, but more from commodity currency weakness.

Markets Today: We are the world
Markets Today: Good day sunshine

Markets Today: Good day sunshine

1 November 2017

The news on the state of the US and European economies has been good overnight, adding more sunshine to the global growth acceleration story.

Markets Today: Good day sunshine
Markets Today: Friday on my mind

Markets Today: Friday on my mind

25 October 2017

US markets right have been caught between 1) the on-going negotiations over tax between the White House and Republicans, 2) who will be the next Fed Chair (the market seems to be positioning for a Taylor-Powell duo but there’s still no news), and 3) the course of the broader economy.

Markets Today: Friday on my mind
Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet

Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet

11 October 2017

It’s been a mix of events in the UK (better data), Europe (no immediate declared Catalan independence from Puigdemont) and the US (Trump tax politics and a softer NFIB report) that have provided the background for limited currency moves overnight.

Markets Today: Ain’t that lonely yet
Markets Today: Tax(pl)an

Markets Today: Tax(pl)an

28 September 2017

It’s been news filtering out over the past 24 hours of the Trump/Republican tax plan that understandably gathered the attention of markets and gotten USD bulls re-energised.

Markets Today: Tax(pl)an
Markets Today: Fly!

Markets Today: Fly!

18 September 2017

Another day on and the Pound has again been the star performer in the currency markets.

Markets Today: Fly!
Markets Today: Surprise, surprise

Markets Today: Surprise, surprise

15 September 2017

While the market’s focus was expected to be primarily on the US CPI print for August, there was much more market action across the Atlantic with the Pound soaring on the back of a near term rate rise warning from the Bank of England.

Markets Today: Surprise, surprise
Markets Today: Put down that weapon

Markets Today: Put down that weapon

30 August 2017

The “risk off” sentiment that overshadowed markets after the launch of yet another missile from North Korea didn’t even last 24 hours.

Markets Today: Put down that weapon
Markets Today: Rain

Markets Today: Rain

29 August 2017

With Jackson Hole out of the way, markets and related news have been more focussed on Hurricane Harvey, some more news stories out of the West Wing and the resumption of UK-EU Brexit talks. It was a bank holiday in the UK.

Markets Today: Rain
Markets Today: Exodus

Markets Today: Exodus

25 August 2017

Markets are little changed in the lead up to Jackson Hole, with little in the way of major FX moves to report.

Markets Today: Exodus
Markets Today: In the air tonight

Markets Today: In the air tonight

23 August 2017

It’s been a risk-on night, a night of some returning support for the USD, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.34% (the DXY by 0.46%), the Swiss Franc and the Yen seeing the larger declines overnight. The driver has been US politics and enlivened talk on tax reform.

Markets Today: In the air tonight
Markets Today:  Get it on

Markets Today: Get it on

25 July 2017

Judged by equity, bond, and commodity markets, it’s been well and truly a risk-on night, but it’s been more mixed as far as the currency market has been concerned.

Markets Today:  Get it on
Markets Today: Twelfth of never

Markets Today: Twelfth of never

21 July 2017

The pick-up in market price action has continued overnight in FX markets. For the AUD, it’s now pretty much all about the Guy Debelle speech today.

Markets Today: Twelfth of never
Markets Today: La Vie en Rose

Markets Today: La Vie en Rose

14 July 2017

It’s a nod to Bastille Day today and with the US President visiting France, declaring in a tweet his “unbreakable” relationship with the French President.

Markets Today: La Vie en Rose
Markets Today: Summer holiday

Markets Today: Summer holiday

11 July 2017

It’s been a very quiet start to the week, generally a night of consolidation for markets ahead of a calendar that sees the US earnings season unfold amid an array of central bankers meeting and speaking together with some data over the next 24-48 hours.

Markets Today: Summer holiday
Markets Today: Getting better

Markets Today: Getting better

30 June 2017

German and Spanish CPIs for June were released overnight – in a limited data schedule – and pointed to a better-than-expected print from tonight’s Eurozone CPI by 0.1% if not 0.2%. That’s added support to the EUR/USD and yields overnight, the Euro this morning at 1.1440.

Markets Today: Getting better
Markets Today: Goldfinger

Markets Today: Goldfinger

27 June 2017

In an otherwise relatively quiet night with only the mildest of risk-on tones, gold was something of a standout.

Markets Today: Goldfinger
Markets Today: Under pressure

Markets Today: Under pressure

21 June 2017

Almost out of default, the USD is higher in a night of virtually no key data, but not getting any clear support from a mixed set of Fed speak, Charles Evans (voter) sounding dovish and Kaplan too.

Markets Today: Under pressure
Markets Today: Janet

Markets Today: Janet

15 June 2017

The Fed this morning announced a hike in the Fed funds rate by ¼%, as entirely expected, lifting the Federal funds rate to 1.00-1.25%. But we walk in this morning with the big dollar having been pressured and the US Treasury curve lower. Another case of the usual “buy the rumour, sell the fact”?

Markets Today: Janet
Markets Today: American Dream

Markets Today: American Dream

14 June 2017

The performer among major currencies has been the Canadian dollar where recent strong hints from Senior Deputy BoC Governor Carolyn Wilkins that the Bank of Canada is shifting to a ‘tightening bias’ given signs of an improving economy continues to resonate with markets.

Markets Today: American Dream
Markets Today: Enjoy the silence

Markets Today: Enjoy the silence

30 May 2017

With the US and the UK markets closed for Memorial Day/Spring bank holidays, the focus in a quiet night was on European markets, specifically interest in ECB President Mario Draghi’s speech to the European Parliament.

Markets Today: Enjoy the silence
Markets Today: What goes on

Markets Today: What goes on

26 May 2017

It’s been a night where oil news took centre stage in the lead up to the end of the week with liquidity likely thinner today/tonight into the US long weekend with the US Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

Markets Today: What goes on
Markets Today: Problema

Markets Today: Problema

19 May 2017

The US market has taken a breather overnight, notwithstanding news very late in the overnight session yesterday that a Special Counsel (Robert Mueller, ex-FBI Director) was being appointed to investigate Russia’s involvement in the election.

Markets Today: Problema
Markets Today: Confessions Part II

Markets Today: Confessions Part II

18 May 2017

It’s been a real night of risk-off emanating from the US and the Twitter sphere going into overdrive over speculation around whether the President pressured James Comey – then FBI Director - to drop his investigation into Mike Flynn, former National Security Adviser, with Russia in the mix.

Markets Today: Confessions Part II
Markets Today: The inflation song

Markets Today: The inflation song

2 May 2017

It’s been a rather listless overnight session, US data has been on the disappointing side, US equities have been headed sideways, the USD did not build further on yesterday’s gains at the start to the week, while oil continues its march lower.

Markets Today: The inflation song
Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy

Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy

29 March 2017

Getting toward the end of the month and the end of the quarter, and given the torpor of risk assets markets of late, the return of some buying could easily have occurred. And that could well be part of the explanation for overnight moves.

Markets Today: (Because I’m) Happy
Markets Today: Strong

Markets Today: Strong

28 March 2017

The German economy is continuing to out-perform. The run of better than expected data continued, this time from the German Ifo Survey for March.

Markets Today: Strong
Markets Today: The crude oil blues

Markets Today: The crude oil blues

22 March 2017

The AUD remains a tad under 0.77 this morning, in a session where there’s been some overall diminished appetite for the USD, with the Yen the strongest in the session, up 0.65% at 111.8, with gains also for the EUR, Sterling, and the Swiss Franc.

Markets Today: The crude oil blues
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017

20 March 2017

From its peak in July 2011 to a trough some 4½ years later at the start of 2016, the RBA commodity price index fell by more than half (-57%) in SDR terms (or -45% in AUD terms).

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 March 2017
Markets Today: Process and the passion

Markets Today: Process and the passion

28 February 2017

In the lead up to President Trump’s joint session address tonight in Washington (Wednesday 13.00 AEDT is the scheduled time), the US Treasury yields have started the week moving back up, but without too much conviction.

Markets Today: Process and the passion
Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016

24 February 2017

Q4 GDP data will be released on Wednesday 1 March at 11:30 AEDT. Additional partials will be available next week prior to the GDP release.

Australia GDP Preview: Q4 2016
Markets Today: Read about it

Markets Today: Read about it

24 February 2017

More focus on the US economy and the big dollar overnight in the wake of a spate of interviews given by now-confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He gave his first interview with the Wall Street Journal yesterday and followed that up overnight with two more interviews with CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Markets Today: Read about it
Markets Today: Up, up, and away

Markets Today: Up, up, and away

23 February 2017

It’s a rather odd world scene right now. Geopolitical factors abound across the globe, with markets again focussing on European politics again overnight, but despite all this and the uncertain shape of US growth, tax and trade policies, the global economy has started the year in rude economic health with evident momentum.

Markets Today: Up, up, and away
Markets Today: Down, down

Markets Today: Down, down

17 February 2017

Don’t be alarmed. It’s not that markets have spat the dummy, but rather US equity markets are down, having opened high, with bond yields also lower. In the currency space the USD has been softer, Euro, Sterling and the CHF stronger. The Aussie has been steady-to-lower, though hugging 0.77, supported by the soggy big buck.

Markets Today: Down, down
Markets Today: Message to my market

Markets Today: Message to my market

9 February 2017

It’s been a rather listless overnight session as the US earnings season is drawing to a close with one of the best quarters of growth for quite some quarters. But that, and the tantalising prospect that corporate tax reductions and deregulation from the Trump Administration, and hopes of better growth, seems to be priced in.

Markets Today: Message to my market
Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien

7 February 2017

It’s been something of a risk off session to open the week. There’s been a focus on the upcoming French Presidential elections, ECB President Draghi has been batting back criticism from across the Atlantic on currency manipulation (regretting nothing), US markets fretting about the extent of timing of Trump reflation, not to mention ongoing tweets.

Markets Today: Non, Je Ne Regrette Rien
Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood

3 February 2017

The supposedly “lively” conversation that President Trump and PM Turnbull had yesterday over the Australia-US refugee deal has gotten quite a deal of not just Australian press but international press coverage overnight.

Markets Today: Don’t let me be misunderstood
Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations

1 February 2017

More unwinding of the Trump lower taxes/higher infrastructure spending US$ reflation trade has again been the order of the day. The Bloomberg spot USD dollar index is down by ¾% as markets again sell the big buck, reacting to the latest statements from the new Administration, selling kicking off earlier in the session with some safe-haven buying of JPY and CHF in response to the immigration policies.

Markets Today: (More) Good vibrations
Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby

24 January 2017

Economic reports have been scant overnight. Trump, trade, executive orders and a White House press briefing have provided wire feedstock for news and trade into Asia trade today.

Markets Today: Don’t worry baby
Markets Today: Walking back to happiness

Markets Today: Walking back to happiness

19 January 2017

It’s been a reversal back to USD strength overnight – including a late session kick along from the Fed Chair, more on that below - the Bloomberg spot dollar index up 0.35% before she stepped up to the plate, and another ½% since.

Markets Today: Walking back to happiness
Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings

Markets Today: Seasons Greetings

23 December 2016

As the markets quieten down for the holiday break, we reflect on the tumultuous year we’ve just been through: Trump, Brexit, the rise of far-right politics and the tide of anti-immigration fervour.

Markets Today:  Seasons Greetings
Markets Today: We can work it out

Markets Today: We can work it out

20 December 2016

Janet Yellen gave a talk this morning reinforcing the commentary around the strength of the US economy, pointing to steady growth in jobs and rising living standards. A less rosy picture for Australia, of course, but, not bad enough for ratings agencies to act.

Markets Today: We can work it out
Markets Today: All things must pass

Markets Today: All things must pass

9 December 2016

Mario Draghi had the markets wondering whether the European Central Bank would extend its bond buying program or start tapering its commitment. In the end, it seems, they’ve done both.

Markets Today: All things must pass
Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita

6 December 2016

The market’s knee jerk reaction to “no” outcome from the Italian referendum saw the Euro fall back by over a big figure for an hour or so, but that was it.

Markets Today: La Dolce Vita
Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016

28 November 2016

Rising oil prices from early this year and again from the middle of the year have been associated with rising medium-to-longer term US inflationary expectations (and indeed expectations globally).

Australian Markets Weekly: 28 November 2016
Markets Today: Magic bus

Markets Today: Magic bus

23 November 2016

The USD continued to march a little higher, the Bloomberg spot dollar index up another 0.14%, gains mostly against the Euro, the Yen, and Sterling, the latter from some self-inflicted news.

Markets Today: Magic bus
Markets Today: Tangled up in red

Markets Today: Tangled up in red

17 November 2016

It’s been an overnight session of digestion and reflection for the market, one week on now from the Presidential election.

Markets Today: Tangled up in red
Markets Today: Party in the USA

Markets Today: Party in the USA

16 November 2016

It’s been a night in which the US bond market has staged a mediocre rally – not quite a party – for most of the session, tilted to the belly of the curve and the long end. It looks to have been some profit taking after the surge in yields since the US election.

Markets Today: Party in the USA
Markets Today: The heat is on

Markets Today: The heat is on

9 November 2016

And it’s on two fronts this morning. The first is of course the election outcome as America votes to elect its 45th President. The second story relates to news breaking out of China yesterday that the authorities are stepping in to take the heat out of coal and steel-related prices.

Markets Today: The heat is on
Markets Today: House of fun

Markets Today: House of fun

4 November 2016

The focus for markets overnight was well and truly back on the UK with Sterling the stand-out performer overnight, trading this morning with a solid 1.24 handle, a full three big figures above where it opened the week.

Markets Today: House of fun
Markets Today: Comin’ back soon

Markets Today: Comin’ back soon

3 November 2016

This Fed meeting came with no press conference and updated forecasts for this meeting; that next comes at the December 15 meeting.

Markets Today: Comin’ back soon
Markets Today: Counting the beat

Markets Today: Counting the beat

19 October 2016

Ahead of today’s welter of Chinese GDP and activity data, the AUD is trading this morning almost bang on where it was yesterday afternoon.

Markets Today: Counting the beat
Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016

3 October 2016

Having just returned from a client tour this past week in the Riverina in southern NSW, there was also one topic that is currently front and centre for local farmers, and that was “rain”.

Australian Markets Weekly: 3 October 2016
Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow

Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow

3 October 2016

Who says fairy tales don’t come true with the Western Bulldogs and Cronulla both taking the silverware in the AFL and NRL grand finals over the weekend. Great results for both teams.

Markets Today: Somewhere over the rainbow
Markets Today: Up, up and away

Markets Today: Up, up and away

22 September 2016

It’s now a sea of green in the US equity markets in reaction to the Fed leaving rates on hold this morning, leaving the Fed funds rate at 0.25-0.50%, as nearly universally expected.

Markets Today: Up, up and away
Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over

21 September 2016

A rather measured night again in the lead up to the FOMC tomorrow morning and the BoJ meeting today where the Bank has been honing its thinking on policy to lift inflation.

Markets Today: Don’t dream it’s over
Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams

20 September 2016

Markets have been tapping their fingers overnight in the lead up to the Fed meeting. Currencies have traded in very contained ranges, the USD only somewhat softer again with the US Treasury curve up 1-2 basis points for the session.

Markets Today: Gasoline dreams
Markets Today: Calm waters

Markets Today: Calm waters

15 September 2016

Mental preparations for another onslaught of selling bonds and equities offshore were put on the backburner with markets becalmed overnight.

Markets Today: Calm waters
Markets Today: What a difference a day makes

Markets Today: What a difference a day makes

13 September 2016

Well there’s one conspiracy theory that has come to nought. That Fed Governor Brainard – a monetary policy dove to now – had become more policy hawkish and indicate that next week’s September 20-32 FOMC would be “live”.

Markets Today: What a difference a day makes
Markets Today: Proud Mario

Markets Today: Proud Mario

9 September 2016

Three main developments overnight, a spike in oil prices, a somewhat more content ECB President, and a renewed AUD warning from RBA Governor Stevens in an AFR interview, the AUD in the wake of the interview pulling back from over 0.77 to 0.7642 this morning.

Markets Today: Proud Mario
Markets Today: Speak now

Markets Today: Speak now

26 August 2016

In a night of still very contained major FX crosses, Fed commentary has started to kick in from Jackson Hole.

Markets Today: Speak now
Markets Today: Poundcake

Markets Today: Poundcake

24 August 2016

It’s been a rather uneventful night for most of the major currencies, with the possible exception of Sterling.

Markets Today: Poundcake
Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again

17 August 2016

It was an overnight session marked by two Fed speakers banging the drum (not as strongly as Keith Moon used to) warning that even the September 22 FOMC is not off the radar for a Fed rate increase.

Markets Today: Won’t get fooled again
Markets Today: Relax

Markets Today: Relax

10 August 2016

The overnight session was neither strongly risk-on nor risk-off; the AUD has been testing higher levels overnight with the big dollar sold lower during the US session.

Markets Today: Relax
Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger

5 August 2016

It was pretty much all about the Bank of England overnight ahead of payrolls tonight. As my colleague from London Nick Parsons reminded us, there was the real potential for the BoE to over-promise and under-deliver, net GBP shorts according to IMM data at the greatest level of this series.

Markets Today: Wrapped around your finger
Markets Today: Take it easy

Markets Today: Take it easy

2 August 2016

Released overnight, the US ISM Manufacturing release for July was barely a miss, coming in at 52.6 against consensus of 53.0.

Markets Today: Take it easy
Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?

1 August 2016

Weaker than expected US economic growth for the June quarter after an underwhelming outcome from the Bank of Japan on Friday set the tone for markets on Friday and at the open today.

Markets Today: How deep is your growth?
Markets Today: Rumours

Markets Today: Rumours

28 July 2016

The revelation that the underlying CPI was not another repeat of the first quarter when growth was an anaemic 0.2% but pushed up this quarter to 0.5% had the market rethinking and repricing whether the RBA was indeed more likely than not to cut rates again next week.

Markets Today: Rumours
Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer

22 July 2016

The ECB’s policy meeting has come and gone without any policy action, though none was expected. At 1.1025, the EUR sits where it was late yesterday in the wake of some intra-session ECB meeting volatility.

Markets Today: Waiting on a prayer
Markets Today: Strange brew

Markets Today: Strange brew

20 July 2016

Yesterday’s RBA Minutes with its dovish take and concerns about the activity side of the economy saw the local rates market move to price in a higher above-50% probability of an August RBA move (from 59% to 63%).

Markets Today: Strange brew
Markets Today: 2 Become 1

Markets Today: 2 Become 1

12 July 2016

Anna Leadsom has stood down as a candidate for leadership of the UK Conservative Party, paving the way for Home Secretary Theresa May to be the next Prime Minister, expected to be formally installed Wednesday after PM Cameron’s resignation.

Markets Today: 2 Become 1
Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)

8 July 2016

It was an eventful news day for the AUD yesterday, even if the currency was little changed, and is not breaking new ground this morning, S&P yesterday changing the outlook on Australia’s AAA rating from stable to negative.

Markets Today: (Any) Heartache tonight (?)
Markets Today: Waves

Markets Today: Waves

1 July 2016

As a BBC commentator described it this morning, providing it doesn’t violate the laws of thermodynamics, anything can happen inside the British Conservative Party.

Markets Today: Waves
Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place

29 June 2016

Whether it’s a near to end-quarter rebalancing or just some short-term perceived value after the knee-jerk post-Brexit sell off, risk appetite had something of a positive session overnight with equities and top-tier bond yields higher.

Markets Today: We gotta get out of this place
Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?

21 June 2016

The risk-on mood that developed as Asia markets opened yesterday on the back of the weekend poll from the Sunday Mirror pointing to a swing back to the remain vote gathered more force overnight, especially in European markets.

Markets Today: Do you know where you’re going to?
Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016

20 June 2016

Brexit and local farm conditions too Thursday’s UK EU Referendum will occupy market attention this week. A poll being conducted by ComRes for the UK Sunday Mirror at the time news of the assassination of British MP Jo Cox hit the wires revealed a switch in voting favouring the remain vote. The percentage of those […]

Australian Markets Weekly: 20 June 2016
Markets Today: Signs

Markets Today: Signs

15 June 2016

As US markets close and Asia opens this morning, further damage to sentiment has been relatively limited.

Markets Today: Signs
Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive

2 June 2016

The final May Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs were left unrevised at 51.5, while the US Manufacturing ISM headline popped a little higher to 51.3 from 50.8 (50.3 was forecast).

Markets Today: Keep the dream alive
Markets Today: Hold on

Markets Today: Hold on

31 May 2016

As far as the foreign exchange markets were concerned, the USD was a touch softer overnight after having made some gains in the Asia session yesterday.

Markets Today: Hold on
Markets Today: Inch by inch

Markets Today: Inch by inch

26 May 2016

It’s been another night of measured markets with both European and US equities closing higher, US Treasury yields a little higher net on the day and the USD marking time. There has been a little more evident appetite for Sterling, while the Canadian dollar was also a little stronger, helped by higher oil prices and the Bank of Canada leaving rates on hold, as expected.

Markets Today: Inch by inch
Markets Today: Sailing

Markets Today: Sailing

24 May 2016

Markets have been generally drifting with FX, equity markets and bond yields trading in contained ranges. The short end of the US Treasury curve edged a little higher.

Markets Today: Sailing
Markets Today: On the prowl

Markets Today: On the prowl

19 May 2016

It was the release this morning of the FOMC April Minutes that’s gotten the attention of the wires and a noticeable chunk of market reaction to boot in rates, currencies, equities and gold.

Markets Today: On the prowl
Markets Today: Kiwi

Markets Today: Kiwi

11 May 2016

The US Energy Information Agency revised up its forecasts for oil prices for this year and next, lifting its forecast for WTI for this year by nearly $6/bbl to $40.32 from $34.37.

Markets Today: Kiwi
Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me

27 April 2016

While the market is very sensitive to the CPI and the AUD and rates markets might see an immediate knee-jerk reaction, the market is not hanging on this number as one that might swing the RBA into action or inaction at upcoming meetings.

Markets Today: Bend me, shape me
Markets Today: When doves cry

Markets Today: When doves cry

22 April 2016

The AUD has flown back down with the 77 handle this morning, pulled back somewhat by a dip in oil prices for once, WTI down $0.59 to $43.60 and Brent off $0.91 to $44.89, the Aussie’s commodity cousins, the CAD, NOK, RUB and the NZD all lower this morning.

Markets Today: When doves cry
Markets Today: Taking care of business

Markets Today: Taking care of business

13 April 2016

Yesterday’s NAB Business Survey bolted a stronger 76 handle on to the AUD, the currency finding support through the day and again overnight, trading this morning toward the top of its overnight range, currently at 0.7685/90, up 1.2%.

Markets Today: Taking care of business
Markets Today: Handle with care

Markets Today: Handle with care

1 April 2016

It’s been a night of consolidation in the main as markets await the arrival of key data over the next 24 hours with Super Friday’s deluge.

Markets Today: Handle with care