Tony Kelly

Tony Kelly


“Tony's expereince includes working at the The Victorian Department of Treasury and the Commonwealth Treasury”

Tony joined NAB early in 2011 from the Victorian Treasury where he worked for 12 years on a range of issues, including state budget strategy and forecasting state taxation revenues.

Before this, Tony was in the Commonwealth Treasury for a decade, where he undertook work on macroeconomic forecasting, microeconomic reform and debt management.

Tony grew up in Canberra and graduated (with first class honours) from the Australian National University. He also holds a Masters degree in Applied Finance from Macquarie University.


Investment indicators looking better

Jobs growth, business surveys and consumer sentiment all point to an economy in good shape.

Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.

Change to fed rate call – March hike now expected.

We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy

Re-building the US industrial base, aiming to “massively increase jobs, wages, incomes and opportunities for the people of our country” is the principal economic objective of the Trump Presidency.

According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.

After a strong third quarter, the US economy remains on a solid footing based on the most recent partial indicators.

The new President and administration will take office at a time when the economy is in reasonably solid condition at the macro level.

US GDP growth accelerated in the September quarter to its fastest pace in two years.

While GDP growth has been modest, jobs growth remains solid and inflation is edging up.

Despite inflation remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% goal, lower unemployment can still be expected to generate price pressures.

GDP growth was soft in the June quarter although the underlying pace of economic activity appears stronger.

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