US GDP grew solidly for the third consecutive quarter to end 2017.
Author
Tony Kelly
“Tony's expereince includes working at the The Victorian Department of Treasury and the Commonwealth Treasury”
Tony joined NAB early in 2011 from the Victorian Treasury where he worked for 12 years on a range of issues, including state budget strategy and forecasting state taxation revenues.
Before this, Tony was in the Commonwealth Treasury for a decade, where he undertook work on macroeconomic forecasting, microeconomic reform and debt management.
Tony grew up in Canberra and graduated (with first class honours) from the Australian National University. He also holds a Masters degree in Applied Finance from Macquarie University.
Recently Published Articles
US Economic Update – December 2017
2017 has proved to be another year of solid US economic growth and more of the same is expected in 2018, helped along by fiscal stimulus.
Wages: A Tale of Two Countries – November 2017
Explaining subdued US and Australian wages growth.
US 2017 Q3 GDP: October 2017
Another strong quarter of growth.
US Economic Update: October 2017
The effects of the recent major Hurricanes affecting the US are clearly evident in some of the economic data.
US Economic Update: September 2017
Increasing household wealth (due to rising equity and house prices), as well as a high level of consumer confidence, remain tailwinds for consumer spending.
US Economic Update: August 2017
After a sluggish start to the year, GDP growth rebounded in the June quarter and the labour market continues to tighten.
US Economic Update: July 2017
Following a slow start to the year, GDP growth looks to have accelerated in the June quarter.
US Update: Inflation Watch – June 2017
Inflation has slowed recently even allowing for ‘one-offs’.
US Economic Update: June 2017
After a slow start to the year, early indications for June quarter GDP are pointing to an acceleration in growth.
US Economic Update: May 2017
A slow start to the year…again.
US Economic Update: US GDP Q1 2017
The details for quarterly growth, while mixed, where not as bad as the headline result.
US Economic Update: April 2017
Investment indicators looking better
US Economic Update: March 2017
Jobs growth, business surveys and consumer sentiment all point to an economy in good shape.
Nearly two months of Trump: March 2017
Financial markets rallied strongly shortly after it was clear Donald Trump would be the next President. This was evident across stock, currency and bond markets, and there was also a decline in credit spreads.
US: Change to Fed Outlook – 6 March 2017
Change to fed rate call - March hike now expected.
US Economic Update: 2016 Q4 GDP
We expect growth to face some headwinds in coming quarters but to strengthen later in the year and into the next, assuming the President delivers a fiscal stimulus to the economy
US Trade Policy. What Now? January 2017
Re-building the US industrial base, aiming to “massively increase jobs, wages, incomes and opportunities for the people of our country” is the principal economic objective of the Trump Presidency.
US Economic Update: January 2017
According to the most recent surveys, business conditions and household sentiment are solid, and on an upwards trend.
US Economic Update: December 2016
After a strong third quarter, the US economy remains on a solid footing based on the most recent partial indicators.
US Economic Update: November 2016
The new President and administration will take office at a time when the economy is in reasonably solid condition at the macro level.
US Economic Update: 2016 Q3 GDP
US GDP growth accelerated in the September quarter to its fastest pace in two years.
US Economic Update: October 2016
While GDP growth has been modest, jobs growth remains solid and inflation is edging up.
US Economic Update: September 2016
Despite inflation remaining stubbornly below the Fed’s 2% goal, lower unemployment can still be expected to generate price pressures.
US Economic Update: August 2016
GDP growth was soft in the June quarter although the underlying pace of economic activity appears stronger.
US Economic Update: 2016 Q2 GDP
In the June quarter 2016, US GDP grew by an annualised 1.2% qoq. This was a little stronger than the 0.8% qoq growth recorded in the March quarter, but still a relatively soft rate of growth and below expectations.
U.S. Economic Update: July 2016
Primarily driven by very strong consumption growth, activity looks to have picked up in the June quarter, after a sluggish start to the year.
A guide to helicopter money: June 2016
The term ‘Helicopter Money’ comes from a thought experiment by Milton Friedman in which helicopters dropped money from the sky.
US Economic Update: June 2016
March quarter GDP growth was only 0.8% qoq annualised. However, at this stage it looks like GDP growth has strengthened in the June quarter.
US Economic Update – May 2016
The U.S. economy had a weak start to 2016, but we forecast it to rebound, with moderate growth expected through to 2018
US Economic Update, 2016Q1 GDP
Quarterly U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth slowed to a weak 0.1% qoq, or 0.5% annualised in the March quarter. As the same quarter last year was also weak, there was little change in the over-the-year growth rate which has been around 2% for the last three quarters.
US Economic Update – 4 April 2016
In last month’s Update we noted that after a soft end to 2015, the partial indicators were pointing to a turnaround. Some new data (for February) and some hefty revisions to historical data later, March quarter 2016 GDP growth is now tracking at only 0.7% qoq (annualised) according to the Atlanta Fed’s ‘Nowcast’.
US Economic Update – 11 March 2016
Consumer confidence holding up, business sentiment stabilised in February
US Economic Update: 22 February 2016
The Fed has consistently signalled rate hikes will be gradual.
Five tips for protecting your IP
Intellectual property covers everything from your brand to customer lists. It could be your most valuable asset, so how can you best protect it? Bill Ladas, Special Counsel at King & Wood Mallesons, and Tara Tissott, Legal Counsel at NAB, discuss the options.
U.S. Economic Update: February 2016
Labour market improving - jobs growth remains strong
Five generations of Tahbilk wine
The Purbrick family has been managing the Tahbilk winery in Victoria for five generations. It’s now managed by Alister Purbrick and his daughter Hayley, who believe they have a responsibility to leave both a sustainable environmental legacy and a successful business for future generations.
What can Australian SMEs do to encourage innovation?
In this video Cindy Batchelor, NAB Business Executive General Manager, discusses how SMEs can embrace innovation.
Impacts of the Free Trade Agreement with China.
This excerpt from the report synopsis examines how Australian and Chinese businesses believe the Australia China Free Trade Agreement will impact bilateral engagement.
How FMDs are helping farmers plan for the future
Farmers will soon be able to hold up to $800,000 in Farm Management Deposits. Khan Horne, General Manager of NAB Agribusiness, discusses the benefits of this investment.
Broadening pharmacy revenue beyond dispensary income
Ainslie Chemmart Compounding Pharmacy’s Colette Needham is embracing the challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry by positioning the pharmacy as an all round destination for health and wellbeing.
Beattie Wines: from idea to exporting to Asia
VIDEO: We talk to Georgia Beattie about how she went from a uni student to a successful business owner who exports her products to Asia.
Putting it all on the line
Taking charge of the family business after the death of his father, Peter Freedman persevered through tough times to grow Freedman Electronics from a single shop in the Sydney suburb of Ashfield to become RØDE Microphones – one of Australia’s great export success stories.
US Economic Update – GDP Q4 2015
U.S. GDP growth slowed in the December quarter to 0.2% qoq (0.7% annualised).
CEO Seat: waking the sleeping giant.
In 2012, after a decade as Chief Executive Officer of the National Rugby League, David Gallop was appointed CEO of Football Federation Australia. He shares his mission to have the most fans and participants of any Australian sport.
NAB ACRI Australia-China Business Index: Bilateral engagement
The first-ever report comparing attitudes of Chinese and Australian business leaders towards bilateral engagement was conducted by NAB and the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney. This excerpt examines how bilateral engagement is expected in increase.
What does it take for innovation to flourish?
In this video Cindy Batchelor, NAB Business Executive General Manager, discusses why innovation is so important for business.
China’s economy at a glance
China’s latest national accounts data showed a slowing trend for China’s economy in the December quarter. The services sector - the main engine for growth over 2015 – also slowed in the December quarter.
Single origin wheat is proving an export hit
Run by four families, Flinders Ranges Premium Grain in South Australia has an expanding grain and flour export business that sells itself on the location and soil it’s grown in, in the same way wine does.
24 Hours with Chelsea and James Ross
Husband and wife Chelsea and James Ross are the dynamic duo behind Venivici, a company that operates three – soon to be four – women’s boutique retreats in Bali and Japan under the Goddess Retreats brand.
U.S. Economic Update: January 2016
We expect another year of moderate growth in 2016, with further labour market improvement and inflation starting to move back towards the Fed’s target.
Alan Oster video on the NAB Special Business Innovation Report
In this video Alan Oster talks about the state of innovation in Australia.
The value of hard work and a helping hand
“Hard work pays off” is a philosophy that Rick Hall, the Alice Springs business owner of Alice Motor Sales, off-road motorbike champion and father of five, has always subscribed to.
How VHA is using Twitter to build its profile
The Victorian Healthcare Association (VHA) explains how it’s using Twitter to interact with members and influencers in its sphere.
In the flow
Father and son entrepreneurs Stuart and Cedar Anderson of Flow Hive™ fame overshot their original crowdfunding target of $97,000 by about $16.8 million. How did it happen and where do you go from there?
The oyster is his world
The Ralstons have been farming oysters for five generations. Now, with brothers John and Ben Ralston at the helm they are using innovative techniques to attract new customers.
U.S. Economic Update – Impact of Fed lift-off
A Fed hike would be no surprise to financial markets. This should mean the impact of rate hike itself is limited, given the forward looking nature of financial markets.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2015
U.S. GDP growth slowed in the September quarter to a rate of 0.4% qoq (1.5% annualised).
United States Economic Update – 14 August 2015
Economic growth strengthened in the June quarter and is set to remain above its long-term trend rate. The Fed is likely to raise rates this year. We expect this to start in September although it could easily be delayed. Subsequent rate hikes will occur at a slow pace by past standards.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2015
U.S. GDP growth accelerated in the June quarter to a rate of 0.6% qoq (2.3% annualised). Following revisions, the economy is now estimated to have grown in the first quarter.
US Economic Update – April 2015
Economy has got off to a slow start in 2015. While we expect it to be a temporary slowdown, we have revised our 2015 forecast to 2.7% (previously 3.1%). If achieved, this would still represent an above trend rate of growth, and is consistent with further labour market improvement.
US Economic Update – March 2015
Partial data have been soft recently, perhaps partly reflecting severe weather conditions. With December quarter 2014 GDP also revised down, we have lowered our forecast for 2015 GDP growth to a still solid 3.1% (was 3.3%). Unemployment continues to fall.
US Economic Update – February 2015
Following two strong quarters, US GDP growth decelerated in the December quarter to a still solid 2.6% qoq (annualised). The large fall in oil prices and the rise in the dollar are producing both winners and losers. Annual labour force growth in January matched civilian population growth.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2014
U.S. GDP growth decelerated in the December quarter to a still solid 0.65% qoq (2.6% on an annualised basis). This suggests that the economy is growing at an above long-term trend rate. As a result, unutilised capacity in the economy continues to decline.
US Economic Update – January 2015
The US economy is currently enjoying a strong patch of growth. Small business confidence is at a recovery high, consumer confidence continues to increase, and household incomes - already benefiting from strong employment growth - are being further boosted by the fall in oil prices.
Japanese Economic Update – January 2015
Japan is in the midst of major demographic changes, which have had significant implications for its economy and will continue to do so. Japan’s population is already declining, and with its society also ageing the drag on the workforce is potentially even greater.
US Economic Update – December 2014
GDP growth is expected to strengthen in 2015 to 3.0%, from 2.3% in 2014. This reflects rising business and consumer confidence, improving household balance sheets, a strengthening labour market, solid investment conditions, declines in oil prices and a fading headwind from fiscal policy.
US Economic Update – November 2014
The U.S. economy is growing at an above trend pace, with strong jobs growth. We expect the Fed to start raising rates in mid-2015. While there are signs wages growth is starting to strengthen, low inflation remains the main risk that may delay rate hikes.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2014
GDP grew by 3.5% qoq (annualised rate) in the September quarter, a strong above trend result. While we expect that growth may slow in the December quarter, it should still be consistent with around 3% annualised growth in the second half of 2014.
US Economic Update – October 2014
Indicators point to above trend growth in the September quarter of just over 3% qoq. Jobs growth was strong in September and the unemployment rate fell below 6% for the first time in over six years. Inflationary pressures have eased in recent months.
US Economic Update – September 2014
Indicators remain generally positive, consistent with our forecast of solid, above trend, growth of 3.0% qoq (annualised) in the September quarter. While August’s employment gain (142,000) was below expectations, the recovery in the labour market remains on track.
US Economic Update – August 2014
GDP bounced back strongly in the June quarter, growing at an annualised 4.0% rate. Early indicators for the September quarter are positive. Tapering of asset purchases under QE is continuing and we expect the end of the program to be announced after the Fed’s October meeting.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2014
GDP bounced back strongly in the June quarter, growing by a 4.0% annualised rate. The improvement was broad based and revisions to recent quarters were also positive. Early indicators for the September quarter are positive. We expect solid growth over the rest of the year.
US Economic Update – July 2014
The large fall in March quarter GDP is not matched by other indicators. Data for June quarter suggest growth will resume. Inflation has strengthened in recent months.
US GDP Q1 2014 Update
US GDP is now estimated to have declined by a recession like 2.9% qoq (annualized rate) in the March quarter. However, we still think the March quarter weakness is a one-off. Other indicators do not point to an economic downturn.
US Economic Update – June 2014
The economy is now estimated to have gone backwards in the March quarter. However, indicators point to a bounce back in the June quarter. Recovery expected to continue over the rest of 2014 and into 2015. We expect growth of around 2¼% this year and 3% in 2015.
US Economic Update – May 2014
GDP growth paused in the March quarter, but indicators point to a bounce back in the June quarter. The labour market continues to improve highlighted by a large fall in the unemployment rate in April. Other labour market indicators are also improving but more slowly...
US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2014
US GDP growth slowed sharply in the March quarter. This, at least in part, reflected the harsh winter and also a correction to the strong growth seen in the second half of 2013 as inventory accumulation slowed and net export gains were reversed.
US Economic Update – April 2014
GDP growth is expected to decelerate in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter. The recovery should get back on a firmer footing over the rest of 2014. We are still expecting GDP growth of 2.6% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015.that
US Economic Update – March 2014
GDP growth is expected to decelerate modestly in the March quarter, partly reflecting the temporary impact of a severe winter. Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.6% in 2014 (previously 2.8%) and 2.9% in 2015.
US Economic Update – February 2014
Economy still on track despite fall in manufacturing ISM and another weak jobs report. Following GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013 we are forecasting GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2014 and 2.9% in 2015. Inflation remains well below Fed’s 2% objective.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q4 2013
US GDP rose by a reasonably strong 3.2% (annualized rate) in Q4, completing a strong second half to the year. Consumption growth was stronger as were net exports but residential investment went into reverse and public demand was very weak due to the October government shutdown.
US Economic Update – January 2014
Recent partial indicators of economic activity have been positive. With inventories also tracking more strongly than expected, December quarter GDP growth is now estimated to be 0.7% qoq (3.0% annualised). We are forecasting GDP growth of 1.9% in 2013
US Economic Update – November 2013
US GDP rose by 2.8% (annualized rate) in the September quarter, continuing the improvement experienced over the course of the past year. However, details a bit weaker as the stronger growth reflected a pick-up in inventories.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q3 2013
US GDP rose by 2.8% (annualized rate) in the September quarter, continuing the improvement experienced over the course of the past year. However, the stronger growth largely reflected a pickup in inventories. Business investment and consumption were weak, but housing is still growing
US Economic Update – October 2013
September quarter GDP growth expected to be 2.0% qoq (annualised rate). Business surveys more positive on strength of the economy. Partial U.S. Government shutdown will not have a major direct impact on the economy.
US Economic Update – September 2013
US GDP for the June quarter revised up from 1.7% (annualized rate) to 2.5%. While some partial indicators were soft at the start of the September quarter, business surveys point to a stronger underlying momentum in the economy. We have revised up our forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.6%
US Economic Update – August 2013
US GDP rose by 1.7% (annualized rate) in the June quarter, an improvement on the March quarter, but still only a modest rate of growth. The stronger growth largely reflected a pick-up in business investment and a much smaller detraction from growth from public demand.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q2 2013
US GDP rose by 1.7% (annualized rate) in the June quarter, an improvement on the March quarter, but still only a modest rate of growth. The stronger growth largely reflected a pick-up in business investment and a much smaller detraction from growth from public demand.
US Economic Update – July 2013
Overall, the US economy appears to be continuing to grow at a modest pace. While GDP growth is likely to slow in the June quarter, this is partly due to an expected inventory correction. We are forecasting GDP growth will strengthen in the second half of the year.
US Economic Update – June 2013
Early indicators suggest GDP growth will slow a little in the June quarter from its March quarter level. However, as the impact of tax increases and the automatic budget cuts fades, growth is expected to strengthen later in the year. We see GDP growth of 2.1% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014.
US Economic Update – May 2013
US GDP rose by 2.5% (annualized rate) in the March quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. We are forecasting GDP growth of 2.1% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. While GDP growth will likely moderate in the current quarter it should strengthen in the second half of the year.
US Economic Update – US GDP Q1 2013
US GDP rose by 2.5% (annualized rate) in the March quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. Growth in the quarter was largely driven by private consumption and a positive contribution from inventories. Fixed investment was weaker than the previous quarter but continues to grow
US Economic Update – April 2013
Partial data for the March quarter are pointing to a noticeable pick-up in GDP growth following only weak growth in the December quarter. We are expecting GDP growth of 2.4% (revised from 2.2%) in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. While we expect growth to slow modestly in the June quarter, it ....
US Economic Update – March 2013
Economic (GDP) growth appears to have resumed in March quarter after December quarter lull. We are expecting GDP growth of 2.2% in 2013 and 2.9% in 2014. Growth to be supported by some fading headwinds, growing business investment and continued recovery in the housing market.
US Economic Update – February 2013
US GDP fell in the December quarter but the underlying trend is modest growth. Extremely loose monetary policy likely to continue for an extended period. Expect QE3 monthly asset purchases will finish at end of 2013. Fed funds rate likely on hold until late 2015/early 2016
US Economic Update – US GDP 2012 Q4
US GDP fell by 0.1% (annualized rate) in the December quarter following quite solid growth in the previous quarter. Underlying trend is modest growth. The quarterly decline reflects a big drop in federal defence spending and slower inventory growth as well as a decline in net exports.
US Economic Update – January 2013
The ‘fiscal cliff’ has been substantially scaled back. The fate of scheduled automatic budget cuts (delayed for only two months) is still subject to negotiation and an increase in the debt limit is also still to be agreed. The U.S. economy continues to track along at a moderate pace...
Economic Comment: US Fiscal Cliff
The fiscal cliff refers to the large fiscal contraction that will occur early in January 2013 due to increases in taxes and reductions in spending under existing law. Given the state of the economy and the limited ability of monetary policy to respond
US Economic Update – November 2012
The US economy is only growing at a modest rate. GDP grew by 0.5% qoq (or 2.0% annualized) in the September quarter, and we expect similar growth for the present quarter. Hurricane Sandy is a downside risk for December quarter growth; but upside risk for subsequent quarters.
US Economic Update – US GDP – Q2 2012
US GDP grew by 0.5% qoq in the September quarter, stronger than in the previous quarter but still only modest. The strengthening in growth was due to consumption, housing investment and government spending picking up. Of concern, however, was a decline in business investment.
US Economic Update – October 2012
GDP growth was only 0.3% qoq in the June quarter and partial indictors suggest that is was only slightly higher in the September quarter. This is consistent with the finding of the Federal Reserve’s ‘Beige book’ released this week.
US Economic Update
The Fed has announced further, aggressive, stimulus – extended forward guidance and a new round of QE. The Fed is also signalling that monetary policy stimulus will be maintained for longer than would normally be the case when the recovery strengthens. The latest indicators continue to suggest that the U.S. is experiencing only modest growth. […]
Implications of the US Drought – August 2012
Drought has led to big downward revisions to US crop production. Impact on farm sector incomes will be mitigated by several factors, particularly the large expected increases in crop prices. However, these price rises will squeeze livestock and dairy producers. Farm sector will be a headwind to US GDP growth in 2012 similar to that […]
US Economic Update – August 2012
US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter. The composition of GDP was not positive, with the inventory cycle likely to be a moderate headwind in the near term. We expect growth to be similar in the […]
US GDP – Q2 2012
US GDP grew by only a modest 0.4% (or 1.5% annualized) in the June quarter, a slightly lower rate of growth than in the previous quarter.
US Economic Update – July 2012
The recent softness in economic indicators continued over the last month, and now point to GDP growth in the June quarter being slightly weaker than the March quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have trimmed our growth expectations for 2012 (from 2.2% […]
US Fiscal Policy – 22 June 2012
Under current law there will be a large fiscal contraction in the United States in 2013. If it went ahead it could significantly impact the economy. However, experience suggests that many of the spending cuts and tax increases will be deferred. We expect the fiscal headwind in 2013 to be similar to that of 2012. […]
US Economic Update – June 2012
The recent weakness in jobs growth continued into May. It is probably, in part, a correction to the surprisingly strong growth in early 2012. Indicators suggest that June quarter GDP growth will maintain the previous quarter’s modest pace. While we still expect GDP growth to strengthen in the second half of the year we have […]
US Economic Update – 11 May 2012
US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace. We expect GDP in the current quarter to grow at a similar rate to the March quarter and then strengthen in the second half of the year. We have left our forecasts […]
US GDP – Q1 2012
US GDP grew by 0.5% (or 2.2% annualized) in the March quarter, confirming that the US economy is growing at a modest-to-moderate pace. There was mixed news on the composition of GDP with inventories making a further contribution to growth and business investment declining. However, consumption and housing investment were strong and there was a […]
USA Economic Update – 12 April 2012
It is too early to say that the disappointing March jobs outcome signals a shift to a much slower pace of jobs growth but some downwards correction was expected.
US Economic Update: ‘sterilized’ QE
If the Fed undertakes another round of Quantitative Easing it may be ‘sterilized’. That is, the Fed would ensure there is no increase in bank reserves, either through using reverse repurchase agreements or auctioning term deposits to banks. Reverse repos or term deposits are a form of shortterm borrowing. Under unsterilized QE, the asset purchases […]