Author
Kaixin is an Economist and member of the Global Markets Research team at NAB. She has a keen interest in using data and economic frameworks to generate insightful analysis.
Prior to joining the NAB, Kaixin worked as an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia, working in the Economic Analysis Department, and tutored economics at the University of Melbourne. Kaixin holds a Bachelor of Commerce with first class Honours in Economics and a Diploma of Global Issues from the University of Melbourne.
Kaixin is Treasurer of the Women in Economics Network (WEN) for NSW.
Domestic and international visitors spent $152bn in Australia in 2018-19, $39bn by international visitors. However, the pandemic has seen international and domestic visitor spending collapse amid borders closures and restrictions.
Despite strong job gains in June and July, there are still over half a million people who have lost work since March and an unknown number supported by JobKeeper.
Inflation is expected to weaken materially in the near term.
Education exports are likely to remain weak as international travel remains difficult and the global economy slowly recovers from a deep recession.
The OECD has estimated the direct economic cost of containment measures is substantial, with shutdown resulting in a 20-25% fall in real GDP, across the advanced economies.
Australia has entered a deep recession and unemployment could soon reach 12%, a level surpassed only by the depressions of the 1890s and 1930s
We used the MARTIN model to explore holding the cash rate at low levels for a longer period of time.
Business Conditions and NAB
In today’s Weekly we preview what to expect for the RBA’s forecasts and the narrative and risk around its outlook for the economy. We’re likely to see the Bank wind back the growth outlook and trim its inflation forecasts.
Housing market cools; job ads pull back.
This week, we take a closer look into how the RBA forecasts might be evolving, including from still upbeat recent data but still nagging concerns about the outlook.
This week, we share our thoughts on inflation, with Q3 CPI due to be released in a little over a week on Wednesday 31 October.
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