“Tapas is an Economist within Global Markets Research at the National Australia Bank (NAB). ”
Tapas is Director, Economics at NAB and provides commentary and insights for our clients on the economy and financial markets including regularly kicking off the working day with key overnight updates on NAB’s Morning Call podcast. Having recently spent the past couple of years in our London office, he continues to work with NAB’s diverse range of clients, from SMEs to institutions, both in Australia and abroad. Prior to NAB, Tapas spent six years at the Reserve Bank of Australia and also worked as an economic adviser in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, advising the Gillard, Rudd and Abbott governments.
It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.
In this Weekly we look at job ads in more detail to see what they may be portending for activity, and we also cross check the data with other information.
China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.
In Australia, the RBA met yesterday and raised the official cash rate by 50bps to 1.85% as expected, the third consecutive 50bps increase to be at its highest level since April 2016.
More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.
The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014
In this Weekly we shine a spotlight on the household sector and what trends are starting to show as households react to higher interest rates and above-target inflation.
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