Author

Tapas Strickland

“Tapas is an Economist within Global Markets Research at the National Australia Bank (NAB). ”

Tapas is Head of Market Economics at NAB and provides commentary and insights for our clients on the economy and financial markets including regularly kicking off the working day with key overnight updates on NAB’s Morning Call podcast. Bringing a global perspective, Tapas has previously worked for NAB in London, and continues to work with NAB’s diverse range of clients, from SMEs to institutions, both in Australia and abroad. Prior to NAB, Tapas spent six years at the Reserve Bank of Australia and also worked as an economic adviser in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, advising the Gillard, Rudd and Abbott governments.

Recently Published Articles

Markets Today – Sour Candy

Markets Today – Sour Candy

17 November 2023

A choppy session with softer-than expected second-tier US data seeing yields fall, while the USD gained smalls and commodity currencies underperformed

Markets Today – Sour Candy
Markets Today – Torn

Markets Today – Torn

10 November 2023

Two events late in the session dominated price action. The first was a poorly received US 30yr Treasury auction. The second was not dovish comments by Powell who sounded still hawkish.

Markets Today – Torn
Markets Today – Crazy in love

Markets Today – Crazy in love

3 November 2023

Risk-on continues in the wake of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting as investors price the aggressive monetary hiking cycle as being closer to the end.

Markets Today – Crazy in love
Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up

27 October 2023

Risk sentiment remained fragile overnight with equities extending recent losses with disappointing earnings outlooks from major tech companies, despite mostly beating on current quarter earnings.

Markets Today – Don’t Call Me Up
Markets Today – Aint No Mountain High Enough

Markets Today – Aint No Mountain High Enough

28 September 2023

It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been destocked too far, down to levels last seen in 2014

Markets Today – Aint No Mountain High Enough
Markets Today – You Raise Me Up

Markets Today – You Raise Me Up

26 September 2023

The bond selloff continued overnight in what was a very quiet night for newsflow. The US 10yr hit a 16yr high of 4.55%, now 4.53%, and up some 11.2bps over the past 24 hours.

Markets Today – You Raise Me Up
Markets Today – Rocket Man

Markets Today – Rocket Man

22 September 2023

The BoE is the latest to put rates on hold. But are they done? JBWere’s Sally Auld says its not safe to assume it’s over for any central bank.

Markets Today – Rocket Man
Markets Today  – Livin’ On a Prayer

Markets Today – Livin’ On a Prayer

18 September 2023

The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Markets Today  – Livin’ On a Prayer
AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole

29 August 2023

Powell affirmed the Fed will ‘keep at it’ on inflation, but what else happened at Jackson Hole? In the weekly, we pull out some of the key insights, including on the outlook for government debt and the ‘friendshoring’ dynamic.

AMW – What else occurred at Jackson Hole
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

8 August 2023

Northern hemisphere summer holidays and a lack of data has seen markets treading water ahead of US CPI figures on Thursday.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams

1 August 2023

Markets were generally quiet to start to week ahead of key risk events later in the week (BoE Thursday, US ISM Services Thursday, US Payrolls Friday).

Markets Today – Sweet Dreams
Markets Today – Shivers

Markets Today – Shivers

25 July 2023

Weak European PMIs have seen yields fall, though moves in US Treasuries retraced latter in the day.

Markets Today – Shivers
Markets Today – Mr Brightside

Markets Today – Mr Brightside

2 June 2023

A positive night for risk sentiment with equities up (S&P500 +1.0%; Eurostoxx50 +0.9%), USD down (DXY -0.7%), and yields lower (US 10yr -3.8bps to 3.60% and 2yr -6.4bps to 4.34%).

Markets Today – Mr Brightside
Markets Today – Holiday

Markets Today – Holiday

30 May 2023

Public Holidays in the US, UK and Germany made for a very quiet night as far as market moves are concerned.

Markets Today – Holiday
Markets Today – Dance Monkey

Markets Today – Dance Monkey

3 May 2023

Big moves in markets overnight as US regional bank worries reignited, signs of catering in European loan demand, and a sharp fall in US job openings.

Markets Today – Dance Monkey
Markets Today – The Reason

Markets Today – The Reason

21 April 2023

Weaker second-tier US data has helped push global yields lower, while disappointing earnings by Tesla (-9.7%) and talk of margin compression dragged down equities.

Markets Today – The Reason
Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air

14 April 2023

Todays podcast Soft US PPI helps drive a risk-on rally Adds to views the US Fed is almost done USD falls, and AUD and NZD outperform Yields mixed, equities up ahead of earnings Coming up: US Retail Sales, US Bank Earnings “Love is in the air, everywhere I look around; Love is in the air, […]

Markets Today – Love Is In The Air
Markets Today – Waiting for you

Markets Today – Waiting for you

12 April 2023

It was a quiet session overnight ahead of key risk events later in the week (US CPI is on Wednesday and bank earnings are on Friday, including Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JP Morgan).

Markets Today – Waiting for you
Markets Today – Love so soft

Markets Today – Love so soft

3 April 2023

A softer than expected US Core PCE Deflator (0.3% m/m vs. 0.4% expected) helped push yields lower on Friday (US 10yr -8.1bps to 3.47%).

Markets Today – Love so soft
Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile

23 March 2023

The FOMC hiked rates by 25bps to 4.75-5.00%, continued QT, and kept the existing dot plot which pencils in one further hike to 5.00-5.25%. Market reaction was dovish, but was not risk on.

Markets Today – Uncertain Smile
Markets Today – Get Set

Markets Today – Get Set

9 March 2023

Markets broadly held onto Tuesday’s wild moves, which were driven by US Fed Chair Powell’s Senate Testimony. Overnight Powell spoke again to the House.

Markets Today – Get Set
Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons

2 March 2023

The US 10yr finally breached 4.00% for the first time since November, following five days of resistance. A hot German CPI and renewed price pressure in the Manufacturing ISM drove, while risk assets were mixed given the strong China PMIs yesterday

Markets Today: 99 Luftballons
AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong

28 February 2023

Overall clients on the Sunshine Coast and Noosa continue to report strong conditions and very tight labour markets. While only a microcosm, the themes from these clients are broadly reflective of what we are picking up in the NAB Business Survey, and it is clear the RBA is not yet in sufficiently restrictive territory to slow demand enough to be confident that inflation will return to the 2-3% target

AMW: Sunshine Coast Trip Notes – still very strong
Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me

Markets Today: You’ve Got a Friend in Me

28 February 2023

A quiet start to the week with no top-tier data. The biggest piece of news was the EU and UK agreeing to a new Northern Ireland trade agreement, now termed the Windsor Agreement.

Markets Today:  You’ve Got a Friend in Me
Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism

Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism

27 January 2023

Since Australia Day the two biggest pieces of news were the BoC explicitly signalling a pause to the hiking cycle on Wednesday after hiking by 25bps, and US Q4 GDP which although beating expectations had a soft underbelly (2.9% annualised vs. 2.6% expected; but private domestic just 0.2%).

Markets Today: US growth provides cautious optimism
Markets Today: A rare dull day

Markets Today: A rare dull day

21 November 2022

Latest Fed speak from Boston Fed President Collins, suggests 75bps is still in play for December, noting markets price around 52bps for the December meeting.

Markets Today: A rare dull day
AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting

9 November 2022

By downshifting the pace of hikes, central banks are acknowledging that decisions are becoming more finely balanced as they tread a fine line of returning inflation to target, while avoiding significantly overtightening policy and slowing the economy more than needed.

AMW: Central banks are gear shifting, rather than pivoting
MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again

MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again

7 November 2022

Risk appetite soared on Friday as Chinese whispers swept markets last week that China had put together a ‘conditional re-opening plan’, reportedly mapping out a material re-opening by March 2023.

MT: China scotches Zero COVID speculation, again
Markets Today: The battle for Britain

Markets Today: The battle for Britain

21 October 2022

Terminal Fed Funds pricing have lifted to 5.00% by March 2023 from 4.92% last week and continue to price a 75bp hike at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and a 75% chance of a follow up 75bp at the December meeting.

Markets Today: The battle for Britain
MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in

4 October 2022

A surprise U-turn by the UK government on the fiscal package and a weaker than expected US ISM Manufacturing (50.9 vs. 52.0 expected) have driven a large fall in global yields.

MT: Markets buoyed by bad news and caving in
Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment

Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment

5 September 2022

A goldilocks payrolls report failed to support risk assets on Friday, with equities and the USD quickly reversing on news that Russia was not restarting gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline

Markets Today: Putin ends Goldilocks moment
AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?

AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?

31 August 2022

Central bank officials from around the world met at Jackson Hole last week. In this Weekly we highlight the key discussion points and what implications this may have.

AMW: What did we learn from Jackson Hole?
Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe

25 August 2022

Another night devoid of top-tier data or news flow. The past week has been a bit like Waiting for Godot with markets apprehensive ahead of US Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday.

Markets Today: Dire Straits for UK and Europe
Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?

11 August 2022

It was all about US CPI overnight with markets reacting sharply to a lower than expected print with Equity and FX markets taking the CPI miss as a positive signal, taking some pressure off the Fed and a sign that inflation has peaked.

Markets Today: False hope on easing inflation?
Markets Today: Markets in Limbo

Markets Today: Markets in Limbo

9 August 2022

China is continuing its military drills around Taiwan, but that hasn’t impacted markets apart from gold (+0.7% to 1,787.61) retaining some slight geopolitical risk premium.

Markets Today: Markets in Limbo
MT: Shares down, consumers change focus

MT: Shares down, consumers change focus

27 July 2022

More price increases are likely for food and grocery. If they continue to rise in Q3 and Q4, it is hard to see US core inflation numbers moderate sufficiently for the Fed to pivot.

MT: Shares down, consumers change focus
Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero

Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero

22 July 2022

The ECB hiked rates by a more-than-expected 50bps, taking the deposit rate back to 0% and ending its negative interest rate policy that has been in place since 2014

Markets Today: ECB makes it to zero
Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices

Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices

4 March 2022

EU considering further measures against Russia overnight which would allow them to impose tariffs and quotas to Russian exports, further disrupting global trade.

Markets Today: Powell, Putin and Prices
AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings

AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings

9 November 2021

In this Weekly we look at Australia’s latest monthly deficit figures ahead of MYEFO in December, which show the deficit is set to come in much better than expected even with Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra having been in lockdown

AMW: Government Debt and RBA balance sheet unwind musings
Markets Today: Going bond crazy

Markets Today: Going bond crazy

28 October 2021

A volatile night for rates markets with short-end rates shooting up driven by hawkish signals from yesterday’s Aussie Q3 CPI and Bank of Canada meeting, but longer-end rates tumbling after the UK budget showed a sharply lower debt profile.

Markets Today: Going bond crazy
AMW: RBA review?

AMW: RBA review?

21 September 2021

In this weekly we look at the recent reviews done at the Fed and the RBNZ to glean what a review into the RBA may recommend.

AMW: RBA review?
Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?

16 September 2021

The lift in equities appears to be a case of ‘buy the dip’ with an absence of any positive news flow apart from the very second-tier Empire Fed Manufacturing Survey which surprised sharply to the upside.

Markets Today: High hopes or buying the dip?
AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?

AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?

14 September 2021

At the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference, markets understandably reacted to US Fed Chair Powell’s speech which effectively significantly divorced tapering from rate hikes.

AMW: What else happened at Jackson Hole?
Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down

Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down

14 September 2021

It has been a slow start to the week with little in the way of market moves outside of commodities. Markets overall appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI figures tonight and the FOMC next week . The S&P500 swung between small gains and losses to finish up 0.2% after five consecutive days of losses, helped along by energy stocks.

Markets Today: Oil higher and RBA’s Lowe-down
AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased

31 August 2021

In this Weekly we argue why we think activity should again rebound sharply once lockdown restrictions are eased. Key to how sharply activity can rebound is will people feel confident to resume activity and have household and business balance sheets been sufficiently insulated from recent outbreaks?

AMW: Why activity will bounce once lockdown restrictions are eased
Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls

Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls

31 August 2021

A quiet night with markets continuing to bask in the glow of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The explicit de linking of tapering to rate rises has allowed equity markets to rally, while yields have moved lower. The S&P500 rose 0.4% overnight and is up 1.3% since Jackson Hole on Friday.

Markets Today: Hold on for the payrolls
Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar

25 August 2021

Another day of equity gains and commodities prices. Markets are still basking in the glow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine having received regulatory approval on Monday. China’s delta outbreak also appears to be under control with two consecutive days of no new domestic cases.

Markets Today: More jabs, more optimism, higher Aussie dollar
AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market

AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market

17 August 2021

Lockdowns in Australia are likely to have a very acute impact on the economy, much more than what the RBA had pencilled in only a week ago. While NAB still expects a sharp rebound in activity when restrictions ease, the near-term impact is likely to be larger with lockdowns extending beyond Sydney (e.g. NSW, Melbourne and ACT).

AMW: Acute lockdown impacts being seen in the labour market
Markets Today: Back to uncertainty

Markets Today: Back to uncertainty

16 August 2021

US consumer sentiment plunges to below pre-pandemic levels with yields tumbling (US 10yr -8.2bps), but equities steady to higher with the S&P500 +0.2% to a new record high. For bonds, the plunge in consumer sentiment is an amber signal for the near-term, which if realised in real activity may impact on the timing and form of tapering and puts the focus squarely on retail sales on Tuesday

Markets Today: Back to uncertainty
Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it

12 August 2021

US inflation moderates, taking the pressure down a notch and playing into the Fed’s transitory narrative. It’s no surprise to see yields and the USD lower in the wake. The US 10yr fell 1.5bps to 1.33%, though CPI was the catalyst for a larger fall after it reached an intra-day high of 1.3743%.

Markets Today: Inflation the way the Fed wanted it
Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed

Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed

10 August 2021

Markets opened with a cautious mood to start the week , reflecting on both the stellar US payrolls report on Friday and the surge in the delta variant which has seen China tighten restrictions and Israel contemplate another lockdown. The Fed’s Bostic was the first voter to speak post payrolls, indicating that the Fed should taper after one or two more payroll prints.

Markets Today: Code red, but focus is on the Fed
Markets Today: Watch Germany go

Markets Today: Watch Germany go

6 August 2021

The S&P500 (+0.6%) hit another record high ahead of US Payrolls later tonight. Payrolls of course key to the Fed’s decision on the timing and pace of tapering (see Coming Up for details). Market moves elsewhere were more limited

Markets Today: Watch Germany go
Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason

16 July 2021

There’s more caution in the markets today, even though numbers out of Australia, the US and China were better than expected. There’s a bit of battle fatigue hitting the market says NAB’s David de Garis.

Markets Today: Cautious for no clear reason
Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks

5 July 2021

The Fed will not see the need to act swiftly after Friday’s payrolls numbers, but it will be a different story for thew RBA tomorrow. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, given the improvements in the Australian economy, the need to run QE at $100 billion every six months is not there anymore.

Markets Today: Payrolls just the job for Goldilocks
Markets Today: Vaccine concerns

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns

9 April 2021

Australia has become the latest nation to express concern about the use of the Astra Zeneca vaccines on young people, except here young is anyone under 50.

Markets Today: Vaccine concerns
Markets Today: A big bond sell-off

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off

26 February 2021

Despite the increasing dovishness of central bankers the markets have been selling government bonds like they are going out of fashion.

Markets Today: A big bond sell-off
Markets Today: Markets bide their time

Markets Today: Markets bide their time

11 February 2021

Markets have been fairly subdued on the back of soft inflation numbers in the US, and as investors hold off for any revelations from Jerome Powell as he addresses the Economic Club of New York.

Markets Today: Markets bide their time
Markets Today: Lockdown jitters

Markets Today: Lockdown jitters

20 November 2020

The markets are more focused on the short-term economic hit of lockdowns than the longer-term vaccine fuelled positive outlook.

Markets Today: Lockdown jitters